Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ super Southwell picks for Thursday’s ITV Racing

It's the penultimate night of the Racing League so we've asked PJ to mark your card. And he has.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

17:45 Southwell – Carausias

Danville continues to churn out performances to the top of his talent line and did so again last time out at Windsor and a repeat of that form would put him right in the mix here. However, he has been on the go for a long time this year and I would much rather have the fresher selection on my side. Twice a winner over a furlong shorter here, off marks of 67 and 72, this son of Cacique has since been placed when a never nearer third off 82 at Newcastle and gets a chance to run off the same mark here back at his favourite venue. This will be only his eighth start on a sand surface (won four of them) and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is more to come from him. Off his other rivals, Lasting Legacy is hugely resected after he seemed to relish the step up to a mile and a half for the first time at Wolverhampton.

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18:15 Southwell -A LA FRANCAISE (each-way)

Making his handicap debut, Dark Island is worth watching in the market place as he showed enough at Wolverhampton off a soft pace and doesn’t look overburdened off a rating of 72. It’s a competitive race for this level and there are plenty in with a chance, but a solid vote is given to the bottom weight who has been crying out for this stamina test. The daughter of Postponed was a real eye catcher last time out over nine furlongs on soft ground at Hamilton Park and is bred to relish this trip as the dam is out of Sir Percy, added to which trainer Jim Goldie has his yard in cracking form and I make her the best value each-way play on the card.



18:45 Southwell – Secret Army

Making his handicap debut off a mark of 90 at Newcastle last month, Baltimore Bay weakened very quickly from one and a half furlongs out. This turning track may suit him better and he shouldn’t be written off. However, I was hugely taken by the Chelmsford win of the selection last time out. Always travelling strongly under SDS, he bounded clear in the closing stages for a comfortable win. This promotion in grade off a new high mark obviously requires more, but if Louis Steward can move him into a midfield position from his nine box draw early on, his high cruising speed could once again prove a lethal weapon around here and he is preferred to the top weight and Milltown Star.

19:15 Southwell – Eagleway & Barney’s Bay (each-way)

There are some seriously well handicapped horses in the class three event following on from disappointing campaigns and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Barney’s Bay were to bounce back at huge odds at a track he has run well at before. So, for the only race on the card I am going to have an each-way saver on him behind the selection and course and distance winner. The main selection won here back in January off exactly the same mark and has some won creditably off a higher mark. The first time visor didn’t work in a better race at Ascot in July and the cheek pieces are back on here and this looks a suitable opening for this classy six-year-old.

19:45 Southwell – Seven Brothers

There is loads of early pace in this field of 13 and although Southwell is more of a front runners track than most the past few meetings have seen a fair share of winners coming from off the pace over the round six and seven furlongs. That points me strongly in the direction of the selection who has been shown some mercy by the assessor and has run two solid races since switching from Kevin Ryan to Scott Dixon following a nine week break. His running on second at Windsor was particularly promising and if he can build on that then a big run looks highly likely here from a nice sit in box six under the outstanding Conor Beasley.


20:15 Southwell – Thunderball

Plenty of these young horses have shown a tendency to race freely and at the sharp end, but even into the back end of their first season the majority are exposed. Harry Brown has several runs that make him of interest and he has already run well on the Tapeta surface at Newcastle. This is a tricky race to weigh up and I won’t be having a wager myself, but if pushed to a selection, then the Cole charge could be the way to go. This son of Night of Thunder has run three times on a rattling fast surface at Windsor, but I think will be well suited by this more forgiving sand. His second at Lingfield showed he is going in the right direction, despite racing keenly, and he looks more than fairly treated off 74.


20:45 Southwell -Showalong (each-way)

All three last time out winners have fairly solid claims with Isle of Lismore top of that list if Ray Dawson rides him with some restraint unlike his only run at the track in April when he went off too quickly for his own good. Even though he has won when racing prominently, he looked well suited to being held up when winning comfortably last time out at Newmarket. However, at the odds the each-way call has to be the Tim Easterby charge who looks a big price. Yet to race on the all-weather, the son of Showcasing is undoubtedly well weighted, 11lbs below his last winning mark, and ran a much better race last time out at Thirsk than his finishing position suggests.

Thursday’s Southwell tips

17:45 Southwell – Carausias
18:15 Southwell – A La Francaise (each-way)
18:45 Southwell – Secret Army 
19:15 Southwell – Eagleway & Barney’s Bay (each-way)
19:45 Southwell – Seven Brothers 
20:15 Southwell – Thunder Ball
20:45 Southwell – Showalong (each-way)

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change



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