Grand National 2024 trends and stats for Aintree 4.00 on Saturday

Some key nuggets on info!

Horses jump a fence in the Aintree Grand National

By / Grand National, Horse Racing Tips / 3 weeks ago

Paddy Power punters will be running the rule over the Grand National runners in a bid to find the winner of this year’s big race at Aintree.

You might pick your horse based on names, silks or form but it is worth taking a look at the historical race trends as winners of past renewals could throw up some clues.

Corach Rambler was a rare successful favourite when landing last year’s renewal and Lucinda Russell’s stable star is bidding to emulate the great Red Rum and Tiger Roll by winning the world’s greatest steeplechase on successive occasions on Saturday.

Grand National odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.

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Grand National trends

AGE

The days of older horses landing the big one at Aintree appears to be a thing of the past as eight of the last 10 winners of the Grand National were aged between seven and nine.

CHASE FORM

Despite it generally being worth keeping novices onside in handicaps, every winner of the Grand National since 2013 had at least seven starts over fences.

COURSE FORM

A prior outing at Aintree could come into your thinking as seven winners of the previous 10 renewals had already run at Aintree, although only three of those boasted a course victory.

DISTANCE FORM

A bit of experience over staying trips is required as nine of the last 10 winners had at least five previous runs over three miles or further, while seven had already scored over that distance.

LAST TIME OUT

You want to look for a horse that had their last run within the previous 23 to 84 days as that is a profile shared by the last 10 winners. A number of notable runners including Mahler Mission and 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo fall foul at this trend.

 

ODDS

The Grand National is not a race for favourites as only three winners in the previous 10 renewals could be found in the top three of Paddy Power’s betting. The other seven went off at starting prices of 11/1 or bigger.

RATING

Nine of the last 10 winners were rated between 146 and 160 by the BHA Handicapper, with the only exception being the 137-rated Auroras Encore (2013).

SEASON FORM

Every winner since 2013 had at least three runs for the season, while eight of those won on at least one occasion that term.

WEIGHT

Just two winners in the last 10 renewals of the Grand National were burdened with more than 11st – Many Clouds (2015) and Tiger Roll (2019). Otherwise, seven winners in that period had between 10st 5lbs and 11st 5lbs on their backs.

A negative for Noble Yeats is that Red Rum (1974) was the last to carry top weight to victory in the Grand National.

Grand National 2024 trends verdict

I’ve run the numbers and a couple of big-priced horses tick the boxes for essential trends – achieved by eight or more winners since 2013 – and they are Minella Crooner and Galia Des Liteaux.

They come with a note of caution, however. Minella Crooner finished a long way behind I Am Maximus and Vanillier in the Bobbyjo Chase, while Galia Des Liteaux was disappointing last time out and a mare has not won the Grand National since 1951.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Today’s Aintree Tips

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