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13:50 Aintree – Asserted
There is plenty more quantity than quality in this opening staying handicap hurdle and on my shortlist you could make out strong cases for 102-rated flat slugger The Grand Visir, the evergreen top weight Dell’ Arca and the well treated Tayzar.
But, the one that really catches the eye has to be the recently acquired Christian Williams’ trained six-year-old ASSERTED. Formerly with Joseph O’Brien, the selection ended his Irish career on his third start under rules with a hugely eye-catching third of 10 at Tramore in a fair novice hurdle over an extended two-and-a-half miles, never nearer than at the finish.
By Kayf Tara out of a Bob Back mare, this first run over 3m looks right up his street. He kept on nicely on his only start in a 3m point to point, and his handicap mark of 121 (less Jack Tudor’s 3lbs claim0 looks a fair enough starting point in handicap company under his new master.
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14:17 Galway – Winter Escape
This feature handicap chase on the card looks tricky despite just the nine entries, but there is no doubting the make-up of the field with no less than four pressers set to line up and a further two of the field have made the running recently. That all adds up to a solid pace over the intermediate two-and-three-quarter mile trip, a thorough stamina test and that should suit the top weight WINTER ESCAPE down to the ground.
A Grade 2 winning novice hurdler, followed by a fifth of 25 the following season in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, he then went on to win a Grade 3 novice chase at Cork.
Rated as high as 150 in his prime, he is set to race off a lowly 126 here after three moderate runs this summer/autumn. However, all of those runs offered up a distinct lack of stamina over the minimum trip and the selection was basically outpaced as it quickened in two of those runs before staying on late.
This extra five furlongs combined with the deep ground will be right up his street and you could make a strong argument that this is his easiest task for some time.
The biggest danger could come in the form of the hat-trick seeking The Dabbler, a game winner of a novice chase last time out at Gowran Park over 3m. The make-up of the race should bring his guaranteed stamina into play though, and while the course and distance winner Tesseract is undeniably well treated. However, I’m not so sure the deep ground is what he wants.
14:45 Wincanton – Forgot To Ask
The 2020 winner, Wandrin Star is still feasibly weighted on that strong staying winning performance, but the jury must be out as far as his well being is concerned, with a pulled up effort on his last start at Ludlow in March hardly suggesting he retains all of his old ability. Of course, a move in the market place though would make him of interest.
I must admit to having a major ante-post wager on Irish Prophecy in this year’s Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Park, but an early bump put him out of his stride at the second obstacle and despite making good headway on the final circuit that effort seemed to bottom him out turning out of the back straight. Three further runs at Class 2 level (twice) and Class 3 have yielded very little and the handicapper has only dropped him the 3lbs.
And so, despite running from off a joint career high mark, the Tom George charge FORGOT TO ASK is the pick here having been suited by this track in the past. Seemingly best when fresh, he ran a highly promising second on his seasonal debut at Ludlow when a moderate pace in a field of four simply didn’t suit him. But, in a field packed full of prominent runners, this looks much more his cup of tea and his slick jumping is always going to be an asset around this tight circuit.
15:00 Aintree – Killer Clown (Each-Way)
A lovely warm-up race over hurdles at Chepstow two weeks ago should have put top weight Allmankind spot on for this and, even off a top load mark of 160, he has solid claims of successfully giving the weight away to his seven rivals in this feature Old Roan Chase. However, he is short enough in the market place and I would prefer to look elsewhere for an each-way play if the dead eight field stand their ground.
Winner of this race off 152 12 months ago, Nuts Well has been raced sparingly since then, a policy that has worked nicely with two fair runs at the highest level followed by a clear-cut success off 157 at Kelso earlier this month. He has solid claims of a follow up here, but this year’s renewal is a deeper race and he is passed over for the bottom weight KILLER CLOWN.
Emma Lavelle has started the season in good form and this seven-year-old has always promised to make up into a 145 plus performer but reportedly held back by his breathing. That problem was hopefully put to bed in August, and based on his strong staying second to Umbrigado in the Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase he remains on the upgrade confirmed by his staying on run behind Belargus at Sandown Park in April.
The seven-year-old has a fair record when fresh and being held up in this heavy pace laden race should suit his style of running. As long as he can stay in touch with the likely hot pace on the first circuit, I can see him making late inroads down the long home stretch at the Liverpool track.
A quick word also on Tamaroc Du Mathan who made up into a fair novice last season and should be well suited to this flat track. He was well beaten at the time when unseating Sean Bowen at the penultimate fence in the Grade 2 Champion Novices Chase at Ayr, a race won by Allmankind, but was reported to be over the top at the time.
Paul Jacobs tips summary:
13:50 Aintree – Asserted
14:17 Galway – Winter Escape
14:45 Wincanton – Forgot To Ask
15:00 Aintree – Killer Clown (Each-Way)
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