Cheltenham tips: Saturday’s best bets on day two of the November meeting

Our expert panel zips through the card on Paddy Power Gold Cup day.

Keel Haul James Davies Paddy Power Handicap Chase Cheltenham November 13, 2015


*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

The Cheltenham November Meeting sponsored by Paddy Power continues on Saturday, so what does our expert panel expect when the action gets underway again at Prestbury Park.

From The Horse’s Mouth podcast host Tom Nugent was joined by trainer Emma Lavelle, legendary jockeys Ruby Walsh and Mick Fitzgerald and the main man Paddy to dissect Saturday’s card – check out their tips below.


Ruby – Hell Red: “Duffle Coat has English form, having won at Wetherby on Charlie Hall Day. He battled well to win, having found plenty off the back of the last to pull away. But I was taken with HELL RED – Paul Nicholls’ runner – at Chepstow. Harry Cobden is down to ride him again and he beat Phoenix Aquilus really well on his first run this season. He is the one I am going for.”

Paddy – Hell Red: “I completely agree with Ruby. HELL RED looked really good at Chepstow and Paul Nicholls is flying at the moment. Duffle Coat is going to be a big player in the race as well but Hell Red looks like he could be very good.”


Mick – Hell Red: “I was really impressed with Duffle Coat when he ground out that win at Wetherby. He’s already got a pretty lofty rating of 133 and deserves that. Any rain will only enhance HELL RED‘s chances, so I certainly wouldn’t put anybody off him.”

Emma – Hell Red: “It’s hard to see past HELL RED, who was visually so impressive. It’s difficult to stay away from him.”


Mick: “There is a group of young lads around who are going to be very popular. Kevin Brogan, based with Jonjo O’Neill, is really hot at the moment and will probably have a choice of rides. Jack Tudor is also a very good young rider and these are the sort of jockeys you’re looking out for. I’d be looking at whatever either of those two ride as they’ll be very much in-demand.”

Emma – Storm Control: “There is a balance in these races when it comes to picking an outside rider because the less-experienced jockeys are getting a pretty meaty allowance which gives another advantage. It’s important to be supporting the young riders in your own yard, so it depends on the horse and how good your own pilot is worth vs what their allowance is. If a good young jockey is riding for their own stable in a race like this, there is definitely an advantage there. Richard Patrick is riding for Kerry Lee, jocked up on STORM CONTROL and if that runs it might just have a chance.


1.40pm – FTHM Podcast Novices’ Chase

Paddy – Fusil Raffles: “At first look I liked Zarkareva for Henry de Bromhead, but he is also entered at Punchestown on Saturday and might stay at home. FUSIL RAFFLES was really, really good last time out and might go off at odds-on. He’s going to be very hard to beat.”


Emma – Gumball (EW): “Fusil Raffles is a worthy favourite but if I was going to have an each-way bet, GUMBALL might be interesting. He won when Philip Hobbs’ horses weren’t absolutely flying but they’re certainly hitting a bit of form now.”


Ruby – Eldorado Allen: “Fusil Raffles looks to me like a horse that will improve going up in trip. He is a very good jumper, but I think ELDORADO ALLEN could be the one. He beat Stormy Island at Newton Abbot and is likely to have improved a good bit from that run so could give Fusil Raffles a race.”


Mick – Quel Destin: “Fusil Raffles was very impressive on the clock, as well as visually, when he won at Cheltenham. That time comparison with Rouge Vif is very similar. I saw Eldorado Allen win at Newton Abbot and he is much bigger value than that winning margin of two lengths suggests. He made a bad mistake at the last and still went away to beat Stormy Island.

“But the fascinating horse in here is QUEL DESTIN. He beat Call Me Lord and Eldorado Allen at Sandown in a Listed race over hurdles and if this horse can transfer that level of form to fences, with the mark he’s already got in the mid 150s, this horse could be dangerous.”


2.15pm – Paddy Power Gold Cup

Mick – Simply The Betts: “Harry Whittington cannot hide his excitement talking about SIMPLY THE BETTS, and you can se why. The form really stands up. He beat Imperial Aura in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in January, and that horse went on to win at the festival. Simply The Betts got a 9lb penalty because of that win, couldn’t run in a novice race and had to run in the open handicap at the festival and still won! His form his strong and with a bit of luck he will be bang there.

“I’m not surprised to see there’s money for Mister Fisher – the better the ground, the better his chance. He finished behind Samcro and Melon at the festival, and that is very strong form. If those two were in this race, they would be trading very short.”

Emma – Simply The Betts: “I have to agree with Fitzy on SIMPLY THE BETTS. There have been some really good weight-carrying performances, especially on better ground, and it would be great to see him run a big one and take this prize. I’m also interested in Siruh Du Lac, who has had a change of trainer and David Pipe’s horse are flying. He loves it round Cheltenham and there is a bit of money for him so he could be showing plenty at home and could be an interesting one in this.”


Paddy – Al Dancer: “I’m sticking with tradition, and traditionally you would say Nigel Twiston-Davies always has his horses ready to rock at the start of the season. This year he has been quieter but he has just started to hit the ground and hum a little bit so AL DANCER might be a little bit of value.”


Ruby – Mister Fisher: “This is very tricky on paper but I can see why Saint Sonnet is favourite for some. He ran really well in the Marsh Chase but he didn’t finish strong enough for me to say there is your Paddy Power winner. I think Simply The Betts is more of a Ladbroke Trophy horse and could be a 3-miler. I like horses stepping up in trip and Al Dancer was a 2-miler as a Novice before stepping up on his last start so I can see where Paddy is going, but I’m coming back to MISTER FISHER. Hey could be a Ryanair horse, and he ran really well in the Marsh Chase but got in a pocket and was dragged back out of the race. If he had got a better run, he would have been right behind Melon, Samcro and Faugheen and I think that is the strongest form.”


2.50pm – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle

Ruby – Debestyman:DEBESTYMAN ran really well here the last time behind Captain Tom, and Michael Nolan is booked to ride again for Suzy Smith. That would be the one I would go for.

Emma – Debestyman: “Suzy Smith does a great job with a very small team and it would mean a huge amount to her to have DEBESTYMAN come out on top in this race, so I will be cheering it home for her. A Cheltenham winner for a yard of that size makes a massive difference.”


Mick – Tea Clipper:TEA CLIPPER bolted up in his last race at Chepstow, which is strong form. He is a very strong traveler, and the ease with which he went through that race means you would be silly to dismiss him. He is a worthy favourite.”


3.25pm – Paddy Power Millionaire Qualifier

Paddy – Son Of Camas: “I narrowed it down to Shinobi, who made it all at Wincanton which was pretty impressive, and SON OF CAMAS who beat King Roland when they ran at Newbury. He was then behind Envoi Allen as well so that is top-class form and he could be very well handicapped.

Mick – Son Of Camas: “Some of SON OF CAMAS‘ form is very strong and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. He looks amazing and off a mark of 133 he’s really dangerous. One horse which I will flag up though, having put in my tracker last time at Cheltenham, is Whatsupwithyou for Ben Pauling. This horse was a real eye-catcher, finishing off really well last time out so watch the market for him. He’s got some very good form last year, and he is definitely one to be on the right side of based on the way he ran on.


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Emma – Captain Tom Cat: “I was pretty impressed with CAPTAIN TOM CAT, even if the time wasn’t that good, and I wouldn’t be steering too far away from him. We’re going to run Dagueneau here, and he had a bit of break between races and will be a lot sharper now. He did some good work this week and will a big price to back each-way.


Ruby – Son Of Camas: “As Fitzy has told us, they think at Seven Barrows that SON OF CAMAS is absolutely ‘chucked in’ and you would be mad to go against that. I did think Topofthecotswolds ran okay here the last day behind Does He Know, and if that one goes and wins then it gives Topofthecotswolds a better chance.”


Emma – Elle Est Belle: “It’s hard to steer away from Dan Skelton’s mare ELLE EST BELLE. There is clearly plenty of support around her, and it was probably the best bumper of all of them, although there were several other horses who were impressive at beating whatever was put in front of them. She and Olivier Sherwood’s Jersey Lady would be the two I like in this race.

Mick – Allavina: “Elle Est Belle for the Skeltons was hugely impressive at Aintree, but was it the fact that the others weren’t up to much or was she just really, really good? That’s what you’ve got to try and find out. A mare of Olly Murphy’s called ALLAVINA won at Market Rasen, beating Lucy Wadham’s Martello Sky and giving it 6lbs, and I thought that was strong form. You could do a lot worse than back her.”


Paddy – Ucanaver: “Anthony Honeyball’s horse UCANAVER won an 11-horse bumper that wasn’t on heavy ground, and won by 20 lengths while there was another 18 back to the third. No matter how shallow the race is, that’s got to be impressive. She might be a bit of value.


Ruby – Elle Est Belle: “I know Aintree and Cheltenham are chalk and cheese but when you get into a bumper at Aintree they do tend to get racing pretty far for home and stamina does comes into it so for that reason I can see ELLE EST BELLE getting up the hill with no problem. She’s only four, which would be the only negative, but I don’t think you will see many more impressive bumper winners than her at Aintree this year.”

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

Paddy Power Cheltenham Meeting bet summary – Saturday, November 14

12.30pm – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial

Ruby – Hell Red
Paddy – Hell Red
Mick – Hell Red
Emma – Hell Red


Emma – Storm Control

1.40pm – FTHM Podcast Novices’ Chase

Paddy – Fusil Raffles
Emma – Gumball (EW)
Ruby – Eldorado Allen
Mick – Quel Destin

2.15pm – Paddy Power Gold Cup

Mick – Simply The Betts
Emma – Simply The Betts
Paddy – Al Dancer
Ruby – Mister Fisher

2.50pm – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle

Ruby – Debestyman
Emma – Debestyman
Mick – Tea Clipper

3.25pm – Paddy Power Millionaire Qualifier

Paddy – Son Of Camas
Mick – Son Of Camas
Emma – Captain Tom Cat
Ruby – Son Of Camas


Emma – Elle Est Belle
Mick – Allavina
Paddy – Ucanaver
Ruby – Elle Est Belle

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