Football Tips: Our 23/1 Bet Builder for Spurs v Everton on Saturday evening

Our tipster Andrew Beasley has crunched the numbers and the verdict's in.

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Tottenham to Win
Both Teams To Score? No
Over 12.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

A Bet Builder using these selections pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Saturday 5.30pm: Tottenham v Everton
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Tottenham to Win

Whatever Antonio Conte ultimately achieves with Tottenham, Everton are likely to feature in his memories of north London. His first match in charge of Spurs was at Goodison Park, and his biggest win to date at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium occurred when the Toffees were spanked 5-0 in March.

But a repeat of that score line does not look likely here. Despite his reputation for overseeing poor defences, Frank Lampard has tightened up Everton considerably since then. Only two of their subsequent league defeats have been by more than a single goal, and one of those on the final day of last season when they had nothing on the line. The battle of two former Chelsea managers looks set to be an intriguing contest.

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We’re here to talk stats, though, and the early season numbers suggest that Everton could be set for a dose of regression before too long. Teams always over-or-under perform against their expected goal numbers, they’re only a guide. However, the level to which Lampard’s lads are exceeding their defensive stats (nine goals conceded from 15.3 xG) is proportionally way above previous highs and unsustainable.

While another five-goal drubbing won’t occur, Tottenham have the tools to hurt Everton, not least their former player Richarlison. Only Manchester City are creating higher quality chances on average than Spurs this season, so that fact aligned to the Blues impending regression to the mean points strongly towards a home win here.

Both Teams To Score? No

I’m sorry to say there’s another sting in the xG tail, Frank. At face value, Everton’s stats for their away matches don’t look too bad – they’re performing worse for home games, for starters.

The problem when considering their record on the road is that they have not played anyone that good yet. Going into the weekend, none of the teams they’ve faced are in the top half of the Premier League table.

The Toffees’ xG figures have been worse at Aston Villa, Brentford, Leeds and Southampton than those sides have faced on average in their other home games this season too. With that record and Tottenham being strong at home, a ‘No’ bet in the ‘Both Teams To Score’ market looks a good option.

Over 12.5 Corners

One way in which Spurs can hope to claim all three points is through corners. They have scored seven goals from them already, the joint-most in the Premier League (alongside – you’ll never guess – Manchester City).

They should get plenty of opportunities to add to their tally on Saturday. In James Tarkowski, Everton have the division’s shot blocker extreme. But this leads to lots of corners; Everton have conceded at least 20 more than every team that isn’t Nottingham Forest this season.

With a decent total of their own, the Toffees’ matches have averaged a remarkable 13.7 corners each in 2022/23. There are usually fewer in this fixture – an 8.3 average across the last three in north London – but we should be safe adding Over 12.5 Corners to our Bet Builder.

Over 4.5 Cards

Games between these clubs can occasionally get a little feisty, with both Heung-min Son and Mason Holgate seeing red in the last three years. Yet the average of 3.5 cards per match over that period is put into the shade by the 4.4 which have been averaged for both teams in their respective league games so far this term.

Only West Ham have seen more opposition players booked than Tottenham have, while Everton are fourth in those standings. Paul Tierney is in charge of this one and has been known to let games spiral out of hand. When Liverpool visited Spurs last season he sent off Andy Robertson and should have dismissed Harry Kane too. With Tierney at the helm there could be chaos so we’ll take the Over 4.5 Cards option.

Tottenham v Everton betting

Tottenham to Win
Both Teams To Score? No
Over 12.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

A Bet Builder using these selections pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Fancy constructing your own Bet Builder for this match? You’re gunna want to check out our stat packs!

 

  • All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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