* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Southampton welcome Leeds United to St Mary’s for their final home Premier League match of the season on Tuesday night. The Saints have had some rough moments this season, particularly when visiting Manchester, but there’s no denying the talent in the squad and a few fresh faces over the summer could see them jumping up the league table next season.
Leeds have been one of the stories of the season and their style of football has won much praise over the campaign. They were a bit naive at times and have surrendered the lead too often in games, but things like that come with experience.
Hopefully, manager Marcelo Biesla will be able to hold on to most of his players and add a few new names to the squad over the summer. Both teams are in decent form, so let’s look for some value.
18:00 Tuesday – Southampton v Leeds
Sky Sports Premier League / Sky Sports Mix
There are a couple of interesting stats here to get us started. Southampton have been leading at half-time in nine of their 18 home Premier League matches this season and have scored a very healthy 17 goals over those 18 encounters.
The Saints only been losing in three of those 18 games at the half-time interval. Leeds have scored 14 first-half goals over their 18 away Premier League matches this season, but have conceded 21. To put that into context, Southampton have only conceded nine first-half goals all season at home.
Bielsa’s men have only been winning at half-time in four of those 18 away matches, losing and drawing seven each.
Form-wise, Southampton have scored at least one first-half goal in six of their last seven at St Mary’s. With Leeds’ bad record of conceding early goals, we’re getting a good price here.
From their 18 home games at St Mary’s this season Southampton have only drawn a total of three fixtures. Over Leeds’ 18 away games this campaign they’ve not recorded a single full-time draw. They’ve won nine and lost nine. 10 out of Southampton’s 18 home league matches have seen Both Teams to Score occurring, and it has also landed in nine of Leeds’ away Premier League games. Indeed, Both Teams To Score has landed in eight of the Saints’ last nine at home and in five of Leeds’ last nine as well.
The price on Both Teams To Score occurring here has taken a battering with everyone and his dog apparently betting on it. However, armed with the stats that only three draws have occurred over their combined 36 Premier League home/away matches, we can exploit that for some value odds.
One of the great things about this Leeds United outfit is that even though striker Patrick Bamford has been leading the line with 15 goals over his 36 Premier League matches, there are plenty of players behind him who also contribute a decent amount of goals to the team. Over their last nine away league matches, Leeds have scored at least two goals in six of them.
Southampton have now gone nine home Premier League matches without keeping a clean sheet and over those nine have conceded at least two in four of them. We should see a couple of goals here as both teams are in decent scoring form, but The Whites are slightly better than the home side, so we’re backing them to get at least two on Tuesday evening.
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