The Ascot Chase boasts Grade 1 status but this year’s renewal has extra oomph after Allaho was ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival.
The major development from Willie Mullins’ yard has blown the Ryanair Chase wide open and Saturday’s 15:35 at Ascot will act as a key trial with a number of leading contenders set to go to post.
Fakir D’Oudairies claimed last year’s renewal of the Ascot Chase to confirm his position as best of the rest over the intermediate distance, but Pic D’Orhy is emerging as a serious player in the division, while two-time Cheltenham Festival winner Shishkin is stepped up in trip after failing to fire in the Tingle Creek.
All three are close in Paddy Power’s Ascot Chase betting market but a leaf through the history books could provide some clues as to who will come out on top…
Rating
The best starting point to begin weeding out the also rans from the leading contenders is their official rating. 11 of the last 12 winners of the Ascot Chase were rated 162 or higher which already rules out Aye Right (154), First Flow (158) and Millers Bank (155).
Distance
11 of the last 12 winners of the Ascot Chase had at least two previous runs over 2m4f to 2m6f while all 12 had at least one previous win over that distance. The furthest Shishkin has run under rules was 2m3½f when landing the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle three years ago.
Age
The Ascot Chase has been dominated by horses with a bit of youth on their side as nine of the last 12 winners were aged between seven and eight. Fakir D’Oudiaries and Pic D’Orhy are the youngest runners in the field at the age of eight.
Price
The market has generally called it correct over the years as the last 12 winners were in the top three in the betting, while eight of those were favourites.
Last Time Out
11 of the last 12 winners of the Ascot Chase ran within the last 56 days and seven horses in that time frame won last time out. Fakir D’Oudiaries and Pic D’Orhy are, once again, the only two runners that meet the criteria.
Ascot Chase Trends Verdict
The Ascot Chase trends indicate that FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES and PIC D’ORHY are the ones to beat. The winner of last year’s renewal ticks all the boxes on his return to Ascot to defend his crown while Pic D’Orhy also meets every standard so it is worth checking the betting via our snazzy widgets below to see which horse is the favourite. Shishkin has the class but a lack of experience over the intermediate trip and being nine years of age are marks against Nicky Henderson’s classy chaser.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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