Chelsea v Fulham Bet Builder tips
Chelsea to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Kai Havertz to Score or Assist
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Corners
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Chelsea v Fulham – Friday, February 3: 8pm
TV: Sky Sports Main Event
Chelsea to win
Marco Silva’s boys have been the league’s great over achievers when comparing results with expected goals in 2022/23. They proved this in emphatic style in their last clash with Chelsea, with their 2-1 win the most unjust result in the top flight this season, at least according to the underlying numbers.
The Blues’ performances have picked up recently, even if the scorelines don’t particularly suggest that. They’ve started regularly creating clear-cut chances which had been a real struggle, the problem being that they missed 10 of their 11 in their last three matches. With Fulham having conceded the most in the division – three per game on average – the home side should get several decent opportunities here.
Chelsea’s record at the Bridge this term breaks down neatly. They lost to the current top two sides, drew with Manchester United and Tottenham and defeated every visiting team below them.
Similarly, Fulham have played seven matches against the top five and have lost them all. With the Blues playing more like their old selves, these broad patterns should continue with a home win.
Over 2.5 goals
It’s hard to predict how Fulham’s games will unfold with them regularly cheating the xG stats but you can be certain to be entertained. The Whites have been the ‘over 2.5 goals’ gambler’s best friend this season, with it paying out in 76 per cent of their matches. That’s the highest proportion of any team in the top four divisions in England as well as in the big five leagues of Europe.
The last three meetings at Chelsea all ended 2-0 to the hosts, but with Fulham carrying a greater goal threat than in the past, over 2.5 goals look almost guaranteed.
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Kai Havertz To Score Or Assist
With the riches at Potter’s disposal, his starting XI for this match is anyone’s guess. Kai Havertz and Mason Mount have appeared in every league game since he joined Chelsea, though, so should feature.
The former scored the winner in the Blues’ last home game and has also missed three clear-cut chances in his last four league matches. Havertz is Chelsea’s top man for shots and shots on target per 90 minutes and among their leading creators. He should be good for a goal or assist.
Over 11.5 corners
A big part of Fulham’s success this season is that they are very productive on set plays. Only Tottenham have scored more goals from set pieces, and only by one. Add in that they have conceded the most corners among teams in the top half of the table and you can see where this section of the preview is heading.
There were 12 when the teams met three weeks ago, and an average of 11.4 in league matches at Stamford Bridge this term. Only two sides have played more games in which there were at least 12 corners than Chelsea too, so take the over 11.5 option.
Over 3.5 cards
Felix’ red card in the last derby was accompanied by a further seven bookings. The clash was one of just five Premier League matches in 2022/23 in which there were at least eight cards, and the only one of that group to include a red.
Another game with eight bookings occurred when Fulham travelled to Leicester last month. Despite these recent tussles, Silva’s side are not among the front runners in the division for total cards.
They are, however, the top team for yellow cards received on the road.
No current referee with as many Premier League matches to their name averages more bookings than Stuart Attwell, so with him running the show here there should be over 3.5 cards.
Chelsea v Fulham Betting Tips
Chelsea to Win
Over 2.5 Goals
Kai Havertz to Score or Assist
Over 11.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Corners
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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