Bundesliga tips: Infogol’s 64/1 acca for Saturday’s afternoon games

The Bundesliga is back baby.

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Augsburg v Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg to win and both teams to score @ 10/3

Augsburg occupy 14th in the Bundesliga table, and that is a fair reflection of their performances to date. They are a defensively weak side, allowing an average of 1.8 expected goals against (xGA) per game.

Wolfsburg will be looking to capitalise on that weak defence, and they have the tools to do so, as although they sit seventh in the table. They should sit even higher according to xG (5th).

Believe it or not, Wolfsburg’s expected goals process is actually better away from home than at home, averaging 1.7 expected goals for (xGF) per game, so the visitors are taken to win here, but Augsburg are likely to strike too.

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Dortmund v Schalke: Dortmund to win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10

Arguably the biggest game of the weekend in Germany, as Dortmund and Schalke do battle in a behind closed doors Revierderby.

Dortmund are well in the title race heading down the home stretch, but based on expected goals, they are flattered by being in second place at this stage of the season (4th xG table).

They do though, still boast a very strong underlying process, creating plenty of chances on a regular basis, especially at home (2.3 xGF per home game), through their talented attacking players such as Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho.

Schalke sit sixth heading into this one, but rank as a bottom half team on xG, with a poor underlying process that doesn’t bode well going into this weekend.

Away from home they are extremely poor both in attack (1.2 xGF per game) and defence (1.8 xGA per game), so the feeling is that Dortmund will be able to pick them off, and score a fair few goals on their way to victory.

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens

A huge game at the bottom of the table, as Fortuna Dusseldorf, who occupy the relegation play-off place, take on the team rock bottom of the table. Paderborn but only six points behind the house side though.

Fortuna saw an upturn in results before the season was suspended, losing only one of their last six league games, but they were second best in five of them according to xG, so they rode their luck.

They are one of the worst defensive teams in the league (2.1 xGA per game) along with opponents here Paderborn (1.9 xGA per game), so expect an open game with chances at both ends.

In a crucial game for the pair, expect goals at both ends, so back Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals at Evens.

Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens

Hoffenheim are in with a chance of qualifying for Europe next season, sitting ninth in the table, but performances this season have been poor and very inconsistent.

At home, Hoffenheim have created plenty of chances (1.7 xGF per home game) but have conceded even more (2.0 xGA per game), showing just how crazy and gung-ho this team is.

Hertha Berlin are also mid-table, and have been involved in some cracking games this campaign. Their underlying numbers have been better on the road this season than at home.

But, given that Hertha also create and concede good chances regularly away from home (1.6 xGF, 1.5 xGA per away game), back Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals at Evens in this one.

RB Leipzig v Freiburg: RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

Title chasing RB Leipzig will be looking to keep their foot on the gas as the season resumes, and so far they have ranked as the second best team in the Bundesliga, according to xG.

Process-wise, they are rivalling Bayern Munich this season (2.4 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), but prior to the break, it did appear as though they had tightened up defensively, keeping four clean-sheets in their last five league games. Maybe swerve the Both Teams To Score here.

Freiburg appear to be a dangerous opponent, sitting eigth in the table and having already beaten Leipzig this season, but according to expected goals, they are fortunate to not be in a relegation battle (16th xG table).

Away from home they are an extremely vulnerable team, allowing 2.2 xGA per away game, so I reckon Leipzig could run riot here against a team that plays such open football.

Infogol’s Bundesliga bet summary:

Augsburg v Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg to win and both teams to score @ 10/3
Dortmund v Schalke: Dortmund to win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin: Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens
RB Leipzig v Freiburg: RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

* An accumulator on these five best bets pays at approximately 64/1 on PaddyPower.com

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* All odds correct at time of posting and may be subject to change.