“We’re going to have a party, when Tottenham win the cup”. So sang Everton fans on the final day of 2018/19, when these two teams last played ahead of Spurs’ meeting in Madrid with Liverpool in the Champions League final. How did that work out for you, lads? Joint wake, was it?
However both sets of fans actually reacted to Liverpool’s win, it’s safe to say it hasn’t been a barrel of laughs following either team since. This game is a vital clash in the top four battle, as it features two of the top four managers in the ‘Next EPL Manager to leave their Post’ market. These teams are closer to 14th than fourth in the table.
Everton were sixth in the early season table after four games, but five defeats in their last six matches has seen them drop faster than the value of a 50p commemorative Brexit coin. As for Tottenham, they seem to be the inconsistency kings of the 2019/20 Premier League. Each league result has been different from the one before and they have only kept one clean sheet, but they’ve also yet to fail to score in successive matches either.
All of these stats and facts make Everton v Tottenham a very tough match to call. Of the 10 top flight matches this weekend, this one has the shortest gap between the prices for either side to win.
Paddy has Tottenham as narrow favourites, perhaps because they hold a very dominant record against the Toffees. Spurs are unbeaten in the last 13 league meetings, winning seven, and triumphed in the last two at Goodison by an aggregate score of 9-2.
For all their troubles on the road, Everton have generally played well at home in the last few months though. They won their final four there last season without conceding a goal – which included beating Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United – and have won three of five so far in 2019/20.
As it’s so hard to split the teams, and three of the last six meetings have ended level, I’m going for a score draw.
This is a fixture which has traditionally delivered goals. Tottenham’s 6-2 victory last December is the pinnacle of that, but the previous five clashes have all paid out on over 2.5 goals, with four of them reaching the four goal barrier too.
It’s unusual in the light of the teams’ general records – only 11 of Tottenham’s 43 away games since August 2017 have seen over 3.5 goals – so they must just bring something out of each other. Or perhaps it’s because they both have overrated goalkeepers?
Only Norwich have conceded more shots on target than Spurs have this season, while visiting teams at Goodison have averaged over two clear-cut chances per match. We can expect plenty of opportunities for both teams, so plenty of goals too.
Paddy thinks Moise Kean is the Everton player most likely to score first in this match. Maybe he is, but as he has yet to bag a goal for the club, is Kean likely to break his duck here? Moise, it’s Tottenham, so you might.
But I’m going to opt for a man with a bit of form. Richarlison has scored three goals in six appearances in front of the Gwladys Street faithful this season, and would’ve netted at Brighton last weekend had their defender Adam Webster not decided to head the ball in himself. Only four players scored more opening goals in the division last season, so the Brazilian might set the ball rolling here.
Harry Kane scored on Merseyside last weekend, and has to be in with a chance of doing so once again. He was the Premier League’s top scorer of away goals last season, with 11, plus his record versus Everton is absurdly phenomenal.
Kane has scored twice in each of his last four league appearances against the Toffees, so has to be the bet here. For better value we could look to Christian Eriksen, who has netted in his last four league meetings with Everton, but he was so bad last weekend he probably won’t be allowed back into the city of Liverpool.