The Premier League Story of Survival: Find out how the odds have swung, as Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich battle to avoid the drop

Aston Villa are already preparing for life in the Championship, and Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich are all fighting to avoid the same fate

Two of three will go down - but here's how the odds have changed so far...

Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich are all teetering on the brink of relegation – and with just four top flight games remaining, only one can survive.

Norwich City currently have the envious spot of sitting in 17th place, a point above Sunderland and three ahead of Newcastle. However the North East duo both have a game in hand on the Canaries and a lot could change after the midweek fixtures. According to the odds (correct on April 18 2016), there is an 82 per cent chance Newcastle will go down, a 67 per cent chance Norwich will be playing Championship football next season, and a 62 per cent chance of Sunderland finally going south.

But how has that changed since the start of the season? Our nifty little GIF explains more…

Newcastle have suffered the biggest swing, having had just a 15 per cent chance of going down according to Paddy Power’s trading team at the start of the season. Even on Christmas day there was only a 36 per cent chance of them suffering relegation, but 11 defeats in 16 games since means that there is now an 82 per cent chance that Newcastle will be playing in the second tier of English football in August.

Their nearest and least dearest rivals Sunderland are attempting an all-to-familiar great escape. After being judged to have an 83 per cent chance of going down on Christmas day, Sunderland have just a 62 per cent chance of being relegated now, and are actually less likely than Newcastle and Norwich to being playing Championship football next season.

For Norwich it’s an entirely different and more miserable story. There was a 48 per cent chance of them being relegated pre-season, however by Christmas that was down to 28 per cent, with Swansea looking in considerably more danger. However Alex Neill’s men have lost 10 of the last 14, and a 3-0 home defeat to Sunderland last Saturday has chucked a big ol’ cat into a crowded square of pigeons. Pigeons who are sh**ting themselves at the though of relegation.

The remaining fixtures and odds of relegation look like this:


Arsenal (A), Manchester United (H), Watford (H) and Everton (A)


Arsenal (H), Stoke (A), Chelsea (H), Everton (H) and Watford (A)


Manchester City (H), Liverpool (A), Crystal Palace (H), Aston Villa (A) and Tottenham (H)

What do you think?