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13:40 York – Tomfre
This looks a high class seven furlong handicap with no less than five horses rated in three figures, four course winners on a track that doesn’t suit every horse and several of the entries looking potentially well handicapped to boot.
At the age of nine, Safe Voyage, may not be the group horse he used to be, but with showers forecast he is sure to be able to get his toe in and along with top weight Path of Thunder and light weight three-year-old Eldrickjones, is hugely respected.
But that dig in the turf could be the key factor in making TOMFRE a huge player here. A softer surface would be huge for this son of Cable Bay, but any dig is beneficial, and with his good second at the track last year to Volatile Analyst (form cemented since) he could be handicapped to make a big play here.
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14:55 York – Showalong
With course and distance specialist Copper Knight in the pocket of the handicapper and fellow course winner Illusionist making his seasonal debut this looks a wide open affair. I may well be having a saver on top weight Atalis Bay who ran a better race than his finishing position suggested in the Group Three Palace House Stakes and is available at a fair each-way price, but the nod just goes to the bottom weight, SHOWALONG.
Forget about his run at Hamilton Park last time out as he was hampered early on and concentrate more on his close up second at Ripon last time out when he looked a shade unlucky behind Ava Go Joe.
A former course and distance winner off 83, the son of Showcasing is now a pound lower and with all conditions coming alike to him I feel he is way to big at a juicy double figure price.
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16:00 Goodwood – Tregony
I thought that this fillies’ handicap had a really nice betting shape to it with three of four of the field set to make significant strides through the season, none more so than TREGONY.
I have been impressed by the progeny of the stock of New Bay and one thing that he has done is to stamp his stamina on his stock and that I think will benefit this Clive Cox runner now that she finally gets a chance to put that prime asset to good use.
Her last eight starts have all been over a mile and a quarter and on several occasions it has been quite apparent to me that it is plainly too sharp a trip, none more so than when she kept on really strongly on her seasonal debut at Windsor. On the back of that run she was sent to the stiffer Ascot track for a slightly better race, but was never going to land a blow at the rear of the field off what was a crawl of a pace.
Upped in trip again here I expect a major step forward on her first start over a mile and a half and take her to see off the likes of Percy’s Pride and the lightly raced Sea The Moon filly Speak.
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16:55 Haydock – Ascot Adventure
Recent Chelmsford winner, Asad, is probably flattered by that run and is arguably a better proposition on an artificial surface, while Zip and Cold Stare need more give in the ground to show their best form, so I have this between Ascot Adventure and top weight Paws For Thought. I will be having a saver on the latter following his short head second to Ffion at Chester and this more conventional track should suit him better.
However, I just feel that ASCOT ADVENTURE is better treated and being gelded could prove the making of him after he looked a difficult ride on a number of occasions last season.
His comeback run more than suggested that in a solidly run race at Doncaster when he made eye-catching late headway when a never nearer fourth of 18 behind Seven Brothers, but only beaten three parts of a length. I was surprised that the assessor left him on the same mark of 85 and if he can take another step forward in a field full of pressers then I fancy he can record a third career victory on just his ninth start.
Paul Jacobs’ Saturday Tips
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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