In all the weeks that I’ve been writing these columns, I think this one may be the most bizarre in terms of prices. I’ve spotted a bit of value here, I think – and I’m willing to make you rich alongside me.
I’m a big defensive person. I believe it’s on that side of the ball that you win games. I also believe that the only major homefield advantage outside of Seattle is in Mile High Stadium. So, why am I betting against the Broncos? Simply because of Bill Belichick.
The Denver D is so good that they can match up to almost anyone. They’ve just struggled to put up points themselves to see games out. In this case, the maestro will be tasked with dictating defensive formations through his own sub packages. He will find a hole in this Denver defense and he will exploit it.
Brady is as good as he’s ever been, but without Gronk, they won’t be winning a Super Bowl – but they will be winning in Colorado.
Teams who shouldn’t be in the playoffs, yet find themselves in the race to get there regardless, tend to wobble as the finishing line approaches. The Miami Dolphins are definitely one of those teams, but I can’t help but jump at this price here. Odds on seems far too big for a team that would be 7.5 point favourites if the venue was in Florida.
The Dolphins have shown signs of bottling this opportunity already, but I can’t justify the oddsmakers’ thinking with the pricing of this one. The Jets are now relying on playing their linebacker Darron Lee on the edge to get any form of push on the defensive side of the ball. That is not a good sign. All in – Miami to win!
Remember that point I made about teams wobbling when the finish is in sight? Well, this differs slightly, but bear with me. Dallas are there – but they’re not where they want to be just yet. Also, they’re bound to be slightly more cautious with their prime talents given that a berth is secured in the playoffs. That number one seed is a medal of honour for Jerry Jones, but as much as he wants it, the rookie mentality of protecting yourself will come into play here, and with Tampa Bay having a chance at the postseason themselves, expect Jameis and co to come out pounding.
The one thing I will say is that Winston may struggle with the noise factor. That place will erupt on Sunday night with excitement, so silent counts will be needed. Given that Winston is still young himself, I believe this will cause issues – hence why I’m not brave enough to back on the moneyline. Seven points is a nice cushion.
This week’s treble: Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7pts) is approximately 4/1 on Thursday at 1pm.