Horse Racing tips: Paul Jacobs reveals his best bets for Sunday’s ITV races

Our star tipster Paul Jacobs has your TV picks boxed off.

Paul Jacobs Generic

By / Horse Racing News, Horse Racing Tips / 3 years ago

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

13:10 Leopardstown – Lady Breffni

Third to The Glancing Queen in the big mares bumper at Aintree in 2019, top weight Daylight Katie has had plenty of problems since then and made her comeback after a year off the track in Listed company at Punchestown. That should have brought her forward and down in grade she could go well off top weight against the selection.

LADY BREFFNI found 3m too far when fourth to Flooring Porter (form massively cemented since) and duly obliged when dropped to 2-and-a-half miles last time out to lose her maiden tag. An opening mark of 128, getting 2lbs from the prolific Dysart Diamond could see her double up here.

13:40 Leopardstown – Youmdor

The Willie Mullins charge YOUMDOR was travelling like the wrath of god before departing at the last flight of hurdles at Fairyhouse last month and that was despite pulling like a train and jumping like the proverbial donkey.

Hopefully, a degree of schooling and with that experience behind him, the son of Youmzain will have learnt plenty and he looks the value play to end the unbeaten run of the Gordon Elliot-trained Quilixios. The last named has won both his starts over timber, but they were incredibly soft races and this is a huge step up for him.

13:55 Musselburgh – Wise Glory

Carlos Felix is an interesting newcomer from the all-conquering Skelton brothers having run off marks in the high 80’s over a mile and a half on the flat. The fact that they are sending him all the way to Edinburgh for his hurdling debut in a Listed race says plenty for the regard he is held in.

The market may tell us more about his chances and fellow debutante WISE GLORY. Rated just behind Felix on the level, he has the physical make-up to be a success at this game and gets the nod here at the first time of asking. Fiveandtwenty looks best of those with experience over hurdles.

14:10 Leopardstown – Appreciate It

The first four home in the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Chase do battle again here and despite many fellow pundits favouring the very lightly raced Irascible to reverse a 9-length defeat with APPRECIATE IT, I simply cannot see it.

I believe the selection will in time prove to be a better horse over an extra half mile, but he is not short of tactical speed. He has a top-class cruising speed and although the runner-up that day was clumsy at a few of his hurdles, a cleaner jumping display may not be enough to close the gap.

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14:25 Musselburgh – Threeunderthrufive

I believe that The Golden Rebel was hugely flattered by his wide margin win at Doncaster and I am very much on the side of the Ludlow winner THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE to give Nicholls back-to-back wins in the two big novice events.

This striking son of Shantou doesn’t do anything quickly, but he has a devouring stride on him and just keeps on galloping. This first run over 3m should be perfect for him and I expect Adrian Heskin to make plenty of use of him on this sharp track from some way out.

14:40 Leopardstown – Julies Stowaway

Many of you will want to be on last year’s second The Jam Man following his brave second in the race last year, but he is a deal higher in the weights this year and there are younger more progressive types to focus on in this year’s renewal.

Ballyshannon Rose has chartered an amazing story with a four-timer, going from a mark of 87 to 129 and she is rightfully respected, but JULIES STOWAWAY looks hugely interesting stepped up to 3m for the first time.

She was well punted on her first run over 2-and-a-half miles last time out, but was ultimately outpaced in a moderately run race, her losing margin exacerbated by a poor jump at the last. By Stowaway out of an Old Vic mare, this trip should bring out the best in her and she is worth one more chance at a big price.

14:55 Musselburgh – Prince Kayef

Betting wise, this is obviously the most interesting race on the card. Most of these need to win well to take a hike in the weights to make the final at the Cheltenham Festival, whereas top weight Keeper Hill just needs a top six finish, read into that what you will.

I actually reckon that the 10-year-old still has the ability to give the weight away here after a cracking run behind On The Blind Side last time out, but PRINCE KAYEF could have the edge. He has been very lightly raced of late, but goes well fresh and his success over Imperial Alcazar, albeit some time ago, has been hugely cemented since. This extra yardage shouldn’t prove a problem.

Delta Work Jack Kennedy Leopardstown February 2, 2020

15:10 Leopardstown – Fils D’Doudaries

I am happy to be proven wrong, but I thought Monkfish was workmanlike at best here at Christmas when seeing off Latest Exhibition in the Neville Hotels Chase. Pundits were projecting him as a future Gold Cup winner, which I thought was way over the top. If you look at his jumping on the first circuit it was moderate to say the very least.

The value is with Joseph O’Brien’s charge FILS D’DOUDARIES, who ran well behind Envoi Allen (in a different league to Monkfish) and has been crying out for a step up in distance. He is the each-way play if the dead eight go to post here.

15:25 Musselburgh – Sextant

Rated 108 on the level, a sharp 2m around here should be perfect for this former Royal-owned runner SEXTANT and he can make it two-from-two over hurdles. The form of his Carlisle success has been somewhat let down by the placed horses, but it was the manner of his victory to the naked eye that struck me and the view that he looked such a natural hurdler, so there should be plenty more to come. Of his rivals, Third Time Lucky is the obvious danger following his Kempton victory, albeit the race fell apart around him that day.

15:40 Leopardstown – Minella Indo

You could readily point to the fact that all of MINELLA INDO best performances, bar his win in the 2019 Albert Bartlett, have come in small fields. That certainly applies for his three runs over fences. Last time out in the Savills Chase it just looked as though the wasn’t concentrating early on in the race and made a rudimentary novicey mistake.

I suspect that this will be more of a cat-and-mouse affair and he is given one more chance to shine at the main expense of Delta Work. The last named makes too many mistakes to win a good ground Cheltenham Gold Cup off a Championship pace and on his preferred ground this will always be his Everest.

Paul Jacobs’ tips summary:

13:10 Leopardstown – Lady Breffni
13:40 Leopardstown – Youmdor
13:55 Musselburgh – Wise Glory
14:10 Leopardstown – Appreciate It
14:25 Musselburgh – Threeunderthrufive
14:40 Leopardstown – Julies Stowaway
14:55 Musselburgh – Prince Kayef
15:10 Leopardstown – Fils D’Doudaries
15:25 Musselburgh – Sextant
15:40 Leopardstown – Minella Indo

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