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Thursday night’s Nations League action sees a few powerhouses of European football in action. Wales are playing too. Mickey-taking aside, the Welsh face a stern test away to Roberto Martinez’s Belgium but they’ve proven a thorny side over recent years as they’ve only beaten the Dragons once over their last five meetings. Elsewhere, Croatia take on Denmark, Didier Deschamps’ injury-hit France host Austria in Paris and Poland welcome the Dutch to Warsaw. Let’s dig into the stats then and find some value picks from the 7.45pm kick-offs.
TV: S4C, Premier Sports 1 and S4C Online
As mentioned above these sides have met a fair few times over recent seasons, seven times since 2012 in fact, and the Red Devils have only come away with a victory once. That match was a World Cup qualifier and of the other six, four ended level with the Welsh winning twice. The hosts are in the far better form though it must be noted, they’ve won three of their last five fixtures, drawing one and losing one, scoring a very healthy 12 goals over those five games. Over their last five on home soil they’ve won four and lost one, scoring 16 and conceding six with Both Teams to Score landing in three and Over 2.5 Goals occurring in five.
Wales have won just one of their last five fixtures, drawing one and losing three, scoring six while conceding eight. On their away jaunts, results have been far better though. They’ve won two of their last five on the road, drawing one and losing two, scoring nine and conceding nine as well with Overs landing in four and BTTS occurring in four too. With both sides scoring and conceding plenty of late we have to go with the value here in combining BTTS with Overs.
TV: Premier Sports 2
Croatia’s current price to win might seem a tad high at first glance but this is really down to the great form Denmark have been in over recent months. Indeed the away side have beaten France, Austria (twice) and Serbia since March but they did lose the reverse fixture on home turf against the Croatians 1-0 in June. Of their last five matches the Danes have won four and lost one. Their away form isn’t bad either, they’ve won three of their last five on their excursions, losing the other two, scoring 10 while conceding eight with Overs landing in four and BTTS occurring in three.
The hosts have won three, drawn one and lost one over their last five fixtures, scoring five and conceding five. When playing on home soil they’ve won just two of their last five, drawing two and losing one, scoring five and conceding six with BTTS landing in three. With the Croats conceding in five of their last seven at home and Denmark scoring plenty of late a BTTS bet looks like the best value here, particularly as both sides have conceded six and eight over their last five respective home/away games.
TV: Premier Player
Les Blues are very short odds to take the victory here but it must be said that they’re not in the best of form and have a massive injury list. Over their last five games they’ve only managed to win one and that was a 5-0 victory over South Africa last March. Since then they’ve drawn with Croatia and Austria on the road and lost to Croatia and Denmark on home soil.
Austria have won one of their last five matches, drawing two and losing two, scoring seven while conceding seven as well. Away from home they’ve won two and lost three, scoring six and conceding five. Both sides then aren’t exactly in the best of shape coming into this one but the pressure is really on France to deliver here as they find themselves bottom of the group after four games on just two points. The make things worse, the home side are without the services of Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba, Ibrahima Konate, N’Golo Kante, Anthony Martial, Adrien Rabiot and Hugo Lloris. Austria have plenty of injury woes too so with both sides missing many of their best players we’re very doubtful we’ll see loads of goals here. We’re backing Unders.
It’s the away side who come into this League A, Group 4 match as favourites. Indeed, the Dutch are unbeaten over their last 13 fixtures where they’ve won nine and drawn four. Over their five most recently played games they’ve won three and drawn two with BTTS landing in all five and Overs occurring in four. On their away trips they’ve also won three and drawn two with BTTS being seen in four and Overs in three of those five.
Poland’s recent form has seen them lose twice to Belgium (by seven goals to one over both games), drawing 2-2 in the reverse fixture against the Netherlands and beat Wales and Sweden at home. Three of those five saw BTTS, three also saw Overs landing. On home soil the Poles have won three and lost two, scoring 10 while conceding four. With both teams scoring and conceding plenty we have to again look at the value in the BTTS & Overs market.
Thursday footy acca tips
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