Our football trader Jason Murphy thinks Manchester City will make it through to the Champions League semi-finals with a win over Lyon on Saturday night at 20:00.
However, Pep Guardiola’s gang are too short to back against a potentially dangerous Lyon. So, where’s the value? Read on to find out and check out Jason’s preview on the video below.
Man City v Lyon Preview
There’s a lot of potential for an upset. If you look at the prices at the moment Man City are probably a little bit short, but understandably so. It is being played at a neutral venue and even if City were this price at home, we’d be thinking it still may be a little bit short. But at the same time, City just play incredible football no matter where they’re playing.
Lyon did cause Man City issues a couple of seasons ago but they’ve lost a couple of the quality players they had back then – Nabil Fekir, Ferland Mendy. They do still have some very, very good players but Lucas Tousart is missing from their midfield and Jason Denayer, one of their centre backs, is missing as well and I think’s going to be crucial.
When Lyon got through against Juventus they played the perfect first leg, wining 1-0 at home, didn’t concede an away goal. Then they went to Turin, got the early goal, then Juventus came onto them and Lyon had a little bit of luck at the end. Cristiano Ronaldo missed a header with 15 minutes to go. If he scores Juventus are through. It’s a header that we often see Ronaldo finishing.
Lyon did well to get this far with a bit of luck against Juventus to hold on, but Man City are a different beast and I can’t see Lyon causing the upset here.
Like I said, City are a bit short, so if we’re looking for an angle to bet it’s got to be Both Teams To Score. This has come in in City’s last six Champions League games and Lyon have scored in seven of their eight Champions League games this season as well. I fancy Lyon to score against this Man City defence but Man City to come through.
If you’re expecting a goal and you want to go the Lyon route, it’s Memphis Depay. Six goals in six Champions League games. Before he got injured he had nine goals in 12 appearances domestically and is on penalties. Scored a panenka against Juventus when the pressure was on so, if he gets a chance, he’ll be cool enough to take it.
In terms of City, I’m going to put up Raheem Sterling, the reason being a comparison against Gabriel Jesus. If you look at their goals-per minute rate in the league this season, Sterling was scoring a goal every 133 minutes, Jesus about every 144 minutes but Sterling will actually be a bigger price than Jesus in the goal scorer markets so you can see there’s value there.
Since returning from lockdown, Sterling’s goal-per game ratio is one every 81 minutes. For me, Sterling, at a bigger price than Jesus, that’s you easy guide there that he’s the one to back.
Jason Murphy’s tips for Man City v Lyon on Saturday at 20:00
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