* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Your immediate reaction here would tell you to avoid it, but two things come into play here. The first is that this game is one both believe they can win. That means being slightly more open than they usually are, but also and more importantly – giving the higher probability of converting chances to the opposition.
As a rule, when you’ve got two teams who are underachieving on their xG tallies playing each other in a game they both need to win, you back them both to score. Burnley are the sixth-biggest underperformers in that regard and Norwich only trail Wolves. Get on it.
I’m not sure Ralph Hassenhutl understands the concept of playing it safe. But even apart from that, Southampton have created better opportunities than both Leeds and Leicester this year. They’re building up more efficiently than the sides around them.
This game does come with a warning, though. Chelsea have overachieved most in their scoring this year and that success clearly caught up to them against City last weekend. But, they’re at home against a side they should beat – which is Thomas Tuchel’s bread and butter.
Oooomph. Talk about a second-year slump. Leeds are struggling. And while the narrative last year generally centred around the idea that they were just surprising teams with their approach and weren’t actually that good was tiresome, it’s kind of coming home to roost now.
The only three sides with a lower xG total this year than Bielsa’s men are Norwich, Spurs, Burnley and wait for it – Watford. And the worst part of that is: Watford are actually overachieving on their xG total, so they’re producing more than their work is meriting. Write this one off.
I don’t truly know if Wolves could be more unlucky or if they’re too dependent on Raul Jimenez finding the net. But, I do know that a goal fest is coming and this feels like the right game for it to land. I fully expect them to score multiple times, and it comes down to whether Newcastle have the application to challenge them after being hockeyed for an hour. My gut tells me no.
15:00 Burnley v Norwich - Both Teams To Score: Yes
15:00 Chelsea v Southampton - Both Teams To Score: Yes
15:00 Leeds v Watford - Both Teams To Score: No
15:00 Wolves v Newcastle - Both Teams To Score: No
* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 14/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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Saturday Football Tips
- THOMMO: 5/1 Treble For Man Utd, Chelsea And Arsenal
- BEST BETS: Paddy’s Ultimate Guide To This Weekend
- TRADER TIPS: Best Bets For Chelsea, Arsenal & Man Utd
- BET BUILDER: Our Cracking 22/1 Punt For Man Utd v Everton
- ACCA: Mega 42/1 Five-Fold For Saturday’s Biggest Games
- BET BUILDER: Arsenal To Bash Brighton In This 28/1 Flutter
Tips for Sunday
- DOUBLE: Trader’s 11/1 Palace v Leicester & Spurs v West Ham Bet
- TREBLE: Sunday’s Mega 39/1 2pm Kick-Off Flutter
- ACCA: Fab 58/1 Five-Fold For Sunday’s Biggest Games
- THOMMO: 12/1 Treble For Palace, Spurs & West Ham
- BET BUILDER: Tap In Our 26/1 Liverpool v Man City punt
- BEST BETS: Thommo & Trader’s 6 Liverpool v Man City Shouts