Football tips: Arsenal to bash Brighton in this 28/1 Bet Builder for Saturday night

Our tipster Andrew Beasley fancies the visitors to outgun Graham Potter's high-flying Seagulls this weekend.

By / Football Tips / 3 years ago

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Brighton have made an excellent start to the season and will hold no fears about welcoming mid-table Arsenal to the Amex on Saturday evening. Whether the Gunners deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City these days is up for debate – they don’t – but this is the Seagulls’ first match this season against one of the Premier League’s traditional big six clubs.

Only they, Everton and Manchester United go into the weekend having yet to face one of the big boys, and that may explain in part why this trio are doing well in the league table. But while this is not the case for Arsenal (as they’ve played Chelsea, City and Tottenham) their record against the ‘other 14’ is no cause for optimism. They took the fewest points of the ‘Super League teams’ in these games last term and have already lost at Brentford in 2021/22.

Saturday 5.30pm: Brighton v Arsenal
Sky Sports Premier League

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One of their wins was at Brighton though, with a goal from Alexandre Lacazette securing a 1-0 victory. They’ve won five and drawn two of their last eight away league matches against the smaller teams too.

However, they have drawn one and lost two of their three other meetings with Brighton on the south coast since they were promoted. This is a fixture which has tended to trip them up in the past.

Mikel Arteta

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Match odds: Arsenal to win

What makes this match tough to predict is because, lads, it’s Brighton.

They spent last season carving out loads of high-quality chances only to find endless new and exciting ways to waste them. Yet this year their underlying numbers have fallen off a cliff but the results have been much better. Go figure.

Oh, that’s my job, is it? Okay.

What I do know is that if Yves Bissouma misses out – and he’s an injury doubt at the time of writing – then Brighton’s task will be much harder. Arsenal have looked better in the last few games, having changed most of their team from the first few dreadful matches they suffered, and they should have the edge here.

Both teams to score: No

If Heung-Min Son hadn’t scored with about 10 minutes left in the north London derby last weekend, then every Arsenal league game in 2021/22 would’ve featured at least one nil. As the first three involved them failing to score it wasn’t ideal, but this fact provides a decent summary of the Gunners’ early season form. Whether it was them or their opponents, one side has tended to dominate every game they’ve played.

And it’s a similar tale for the Seagulls. Half of their matches have paid out on both teams to score, though it took a 95th-minute goal from Neal Maupay to secure the most recent (in the M23 derby on Monday night). Arsenal won this fixture home and away to nil last season and can do so again. When it comes to the ‘both teams to score’ market, just say no.

GrahamPotterBrightonAug19

Corners Over/Under 11.5: Under

Arteta’s boys didn’t just avoid conceding any goals against Brighton last season, but they didn’t allow them many corners either – just eight across the two meetings.
These two teams are separated by just five in the all-important ‘total corners since the start of last season’ league table, and they’re in danger of relegation too.

Brighton’s last 44 league matches have averaged 10.2 corners, with Arsenal just 0.1 of a corner (how would that work?) behind them. If you’re feeling brave then go for under 10.5 corners, but I’m throwing in an extra one for a little breathing room.

Away Team Total Cards: Under 1.5 Cards

History suggests we can expect this match to be light on bookings too, as there have been a total of just nine yellow cards shown in the previous four meetings. The last time they met there weren’t any at all, though it was the last day of the season. It’s hard to commit a serious foul when you’re wearing flip flops.

With walking yellow card Granit Xhaka Arsenal’s only injury absentee for this match, they should be able to keep in referee Jon Moss’ good books and pick up no more than a single booking.

Anytime Goalscorer: Nicolas Pepe

While Nicolas Pepe is not guaranteed to start here by any means, he has been in Arteta’s XI for four of the Gunners’ six league matches so far. If he does make the cut then there’s every chance he’ll find the back of the net.

He only has Patrick Bamford ahead of him in terms of being most overdue a goal this season, and among players with at least 360 minutes under their belt, the Ivorian is seventh for shot frequency. He’s not afraid to have a dig – a problem which has plagued Arsenal over the years – and he could be the man to secure the points on the south coast.

Brighton v Arsenal tips

Match odds: Arsenal to win
Both teams to score: No
Corners Over/Under 11.5: Under
Away Team Total Cards: Under 1.5 Cards
Anytime Goalscorer: Nicolas Pepe

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