Cheltenham Tips: 5 Irish runners to thrive as Paddy goes non runner money back at the Festival

A mega-weekend of action that rocked the markets and Andrew Cunneen is expecting more Irish joy at Cheltenham from what we witnessed at the weekend.

By / Cheltenham Festival, Horse Racing Tips / 1 year ago

Well, that was a bit of drama wasn’t it last weekend? We’ll now spend the next five weeks using the DRF as a yardstick as proven form against some of the make-believe grade ones in the UK being too shallow – but that’s what this game is all about.

We’ve reached two big milestones today. The first, as you may well know from the big red circle on your calendar is that we are now just five weeks away from The Cheltenham Festival 2023, to quote Vince McMahon, the grandaddy of them all.

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However, just as big is the news that Paddy Power has gone Non-Runner Money Back on all races at the Cheltenham Festival.

That means you’re no longer in trouble if Willie Mullins decides to chuck his best two-mile novice hurdler into the Albert Bartlett for some reason only known to him. Or, when Paul Nicholls tells you an hour before final declarations that he’s keeping his best for Aintree.

And with that concession in mind, let us go forth and multiply  These 5 Irish raiders should now be high on your radar with just five weeks to go.

Honeysuckle – The Mares Hurdle

Well now we know! Finally, the decision that was as plain as the nose on your face has been made. Honeysuckle will run in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and not attempt the three-peat in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

Look, it makes way more sense. The equine superstar’s lap of honour before she heads to the breeding sheds has been argued over and back since she lost her unbeaten record at Fairyhouse and Sunday’s result when outgunned by State Man just confirmed it. She has the heart, guts and the people’s backing – but she doesn’t have the legs for a 2m speed test anymore at the top level.

And Cheltenham is no place for sentiment. Just ask Istabraq.

So on March 14, in the race after the one that she’s won for the past two seasons, Honeysuckle will now face her own sex in what should be one of the races of the Festival.

Now let’s be clear; the likes of Maries Rock, Epatante, Love Envoi & Echoes in Rain will be no pushovers but they’ve now got to raise their game to Honeysuckle’s level rather than Henry De Bromhead’s mare having to find some mythical improvement to bounce back to the glory days.

Honeysuckle may yet get the fairytale send-off she deserves.

Gaelic Warrior – Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Right, so now the fun begins. Willie Mullins’ bingo machine for his novice hurdlers is up and running in Co. Carlow. To be honest, we may as well all buy a quick pick ticket because our logic is going to be seen as remedial at every turn between now and the overcrowded train from Paddington in five weeks’ time.

And yet here I am, trying to tell you just why Gaelic Warrior, a horse whose prep run for Cheltenham was in a bloody handicap – something totally out of the ordinary for Willie. Just as well Rich Ricci is a good laugh then, isn’t it?

Gaelic Warrior’s biggest issue is that he jumps slightly right and I fully respect those concerns. However, do you want your horse who needs some steering to be jumping at a wild pace or in a race that sets slightly slower fractions?

Does W P Mullins want to add another live chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle when he already trains three of the top four in the betting? Evidently not as he’s already told the press pack that he would run Gaelic Warrior in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle if he had to make a decision ‘today’.

He doesn’t and he won’t but with Paddy’s Non runner money back offer now firmly set – it doesn’t really matter where he runs – we’ll be getting our money back if Willie changes his mind and goes for one of the other four races he’s entered in. We can follow in then with our refund if there’s a change of plan.

Lossiemouth – Triumph Hurdle

It mustn’t have been easy for Mullins at the weekend – despite the obvious success. Our pockets will remind us that two of his Cheltenham ‘bankers’ got turned over.

Now, the reaction in the Triumph Hurdle market has been somewhat minimal, because Paul Townend’s mount was hampered not once, but twice so the result had nothing to do with ability.

It was just bad luck and it happens. Despite the reversal, Lossiemouth is still the most talented four-year-old of the bunch.

There’s actually a win-win situation developing here. The first is her price has drifted on the back of Saturday’s defeat. The second is .. once more for the people in the back: if that race has left a mark, Willie simply won’t run her at Prestbury Park.. and, what does that mean again folks?

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Good Land – Ballymore Novices Hurdle

It’s natural given the weekend Mullins had and the fallout from Honeysuckle’s defeat that a couple of performances may have gone a little under the radar. The best of these came in the very first race of the weekend when Barry Connell’s Good Land emerged as a serious challenger for the opening race on the Wednesday.

We’re hedging a little here as Gaelic Warrior (above) is also high on our list, but hey, that’s how we roll when we’re non runner no bet on all markets.

Owner-turned-trainer Barry Connell now has two real live candidates for the opening races on the opening days of Cheltenham 2023 with stablemate Marine Nationale now front and centre in a lot of lists for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. (We’ll argue the finer points of a below par effort from the one he chinned at Fairyhouse – Irish Point – later.)

The one thing you know for certain is the Ballymore Hurdle is Good Land’s sole target at Cheltenham. Granted if anything befell Marine Nationale he could drop back in trip – but needs to be supplemented for that race. His owner-trainer has 25 horses in training and believes they haven’t even scratched the surface with this guy.

While we can’t take the last-place finish of English challenger Weveallbeencaught literally (bolted off so fast in front he made Sunday’s disappointment Facile Vega look like a hold-up horse), this was still some performance by a rapidly-improving seven-year-old.

And if you want to mine the form for other Cheltenham candidates, see if Absolute Notions and Sandor Clegane in particular end up in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle on the final day, particularly if the ground was soft for the latter.

Gerri Colombe – Brown Advisory Novices Chase

And finally we leave ourselves with what a non runner money back bet is all about.

While the Dublin Racing Festival captured everyone’s attention over the weekend, Gordon Elliott’s unbeaten Gerri Colombe was quietly – unless you happened to be in the Paddy Power Shop at Leopardstown racecourse – but efficiently proving that he wasn’t just a slow-ground plodder at Sandown.

He’s not qualified for the 3m 6f National Hunt Chase so the only route now available is the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase over 3m. And with stablemate Mighty Potter hardening to favourite for the Turners Novices Chase over 2m 4f, it looks like Gerri Colombe’s target will be a straightforward choice of one race.

His owner has hinted that connections think they’ve a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse on their hands so they may keep their powder dry, but if he doesn’t run .. you know what happens from Paddy Power.

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