* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Saturday night’s Euro Acca has us searching for value in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, Spain’s La Liga and France’s Ligue Un but to start we’re off to Italy where reigning Serie A champions Inter can make it 10 games undefeated when they travel to Venezia.
Let’s take a deep dive into the stats then and find some value in the markets.
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7.45pm: Venezia vs Inter – Inter to Win & Both Teams to Score
TV: BT Sport 1
Inter are massive favourites to take the three points here, and as mentioned in our intro have gone nine games without defeat in all competitions, and have lost just one in Serie A so far this term. Venezia’s home results this season are decent enough for a promoted side, beating Roma and Fiorentina in particular while drawing one and losing two. Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals has landed in three of their five home fixtures.
The champions are enjoying a mighty run and their league form on the road has seen them win four, draw two and lose one. They’re averaging 2.0 goals per away match and conceding 1.29. Indeed they’ve conceded in all but one of their seven away games this season. Venezia have made the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo very unwelcoming for the big teams and with Inter’s less than satisfactory record of clean sheets they’ll be confident of making things tough for the Nerazzurri. Saying that the favourites should still have plenty in the tank here to take the three points. Our first pick then is an away win and both teams scoring.
8pm: Nice vs Metz: Amine Gouiri to Score Anytime
TV: BT Sport 2
Second-placed Nice are odds-on to emerge victorious against a Metz side who are rooted to the bottom of Ligue Un with just nine points after 14 games. The hosts have won three of their last five in the league, drawing and losing one. Looking at their games played at the Stade de Nice, they’ve won just two of their last five, drawing two and losing one. BTTS landed in four of those five, Overs in three.
Metz’ form is pretty rough. They’ve drawn three of their last five, losing the other two and have won just one of their last five Ligue Un games on their travels, drawing one and losing three. Amine Gouiri’s name is really sticking out here for us. The France U21 striker has eight goals in 14 league appearances this season, has three over his last five and has scored two in four appearances against the visitors previously. Getting him at over Evens in such a vein of rich form is too good to turn down here.
8pm: Villarreal vs Barcelona: Draw
TV: La Liga TV
Barcelona have now gone five games unbeaten in all competitions, drawing three and winning two. Villarreal are slight underdogs here showing that the market can’t really make up their mind which Barca we’ll see here, which is fair enough given their form this season. The Yellow Submarine have won two of their last five in all competitions, drawing one and losing two. At the Estadio de la Cerámica they’ve won three of their last five, drawing one and losing one. The visiting side aren’t in great shape on the road, winning just one of their last five, drawing one and losing three.
We’ve seen some belting games between the sides here over the last few seasons with Barca winning three, the home side winning one and one ending level. BTTS landed in four of those, and Overs in three. With a combined total of 12 draws over their 26 La Liga games we should really be looking at Draw odds around the 2.25 or 5/4 mark and with the home side drawing two of their last five in the league and the Catalans drawing three of their last five overall games it’s certainly value worth having a nibble on. For a less risk-averse bet, the Anytime Correct Score of 1-1 would be another good choice.
8.30pm: Belenenses vs Benfica: BTTS
Third-placed Benfica have dominated this fixture for quite a few years now. Over their last eight visits to the Estádio do Restelo they’ve won six and drawn one. The home side are in rough shape on their own patch, being victorious in just one of their last five, drawing two and losing two while the Eagles have won three of their last five in the league, drawing one and losing one.
Their away form has seen them win four of their last five, drawing the other, and while there’s no value in backing them here we’ve noticed they’ve only kept one clean sheet over their last five league fixtures. The underdogs have scored in all but one of their five home Primeira Liga games this season and getting BTTS above Evens is a great price with those stats.
Saturday football acca
7.45pm: Venezia vs Inter – Inter to Win & Both Teams to Score
8pm: Nice vs Metz: Amine Gouiri to Score Anytime
8pm: Villarreal vs Barcelona: Draw
8.30pm: Belenenses vs Benfica: BTTS
* An accumulator on these four best bets pays at approximately 42/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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