* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Matches such as this Saturday’s dustup between Brighton and Leeds are so difficult to predict as neither side is in great form. Anything could happen.
The Seagulls have gone seven league games without a win while Marcelo Bielsa’s side’s only victories have come against teams who go into the weekend around them in the bottom five. Ever wanted to see two bald men fight over a comb? Then this is the match for you!
Yer man Paddy has Brighton as favourites to win and though neither team has had especially strong underlying numbers so far this season, it’s easy to make a firm case for Graham Potter’s boys earning the three points.
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Saturday 5.30pm: Brighton v Leeds
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Brighton to win
Winless in seven they may be, but Brighton have only lost two matches in that period too. They were beaten by Manchester City, as most teams will be, and were drawing 0-0 at Villa Park in the grand unveiling of Steven Gerrard until they slipped six minutes from full time.
Brighton also proved in their recent 2-2 draw at Anfield that they can perform well against a team that likes to press, and while Leeds cover that side of the game very well, they obviously don’t provide the goal threat that Liverpool do.
This is ultimately why it’s hard to make a compelling argument that Leeds might win. Aside from Raphinha, who was absent last weekend at Tottenham due to illness, no other player in Bielsa’s squad has more than one non-penalty goal in the Premier League this season.
And if you need any more convincing, Brighton won both meetings last season and have triumphed in the last five at the Amex without conceding a goal in any of them. There’s clearly something in the Sussex seaside air which disagrees with Leeds, so back the home side to win.
Under 2.5 goals
When trying to determine how many goals there might be in this game, you’re looking at a real culture clash.
Since Leeds were promoted for the 2020/21 season, no team in the top flight has played more away games that featured at least three goals. So you can obviously guess the gist of the next line: no club has had fewer at home than Brighton in that period.
The Seagulls also have the highest proportion of matches that end 0-0 in the Premier League, so they clearly know how to entertain their fans. Once again, their match with City has to be mentioned as an outlier – the champions won 4-1 – but the only other game at the Amex with more than two goals was their 2-1 victory over Leicester.
Similarly, Leeds’ last two away games may have been 2-1, but none of the three prior to that paid out on over 2.5 goals, so let’s take the under 2.5 option.
Neal Maupay to score anytime
Neal Maupay has only played for 35 minutes across Brighton’s last three league games so is clearly somewhat out of favour. But after his side’s toothless display against Aston Villa last time out, Potter will certainly have to consider returning the Frenchman to his starting XI.
Maupay scored the only goal of the game when these sides met at Elland Road last season and despite not featuring too much lately, he has comfortably Brighton’s best record for clear-cut chances in 2021/22. If he starts, add him to score anytime on your Bet Builder.
Home Team Total Cards – Over 1.5
Away Team Total Cards – Over 1.5
Everything about this game points towards there being plenty of yellow cards. Let’s start with the man in the middle. Among the nine current refs with at least 150 Premier League games on their CV, only Mike Dean issues bookings more frequently than Craig Pawson, who is in charge here.
Pawson has also shown at least one yellow card to both teams in 16 of his last 20 matches, so Brighton and Leeds will need to be on their best behaviour.
Except that playing nicely appears to have been beyond them this season. The Bielsa boys have collected at least two bookings (and an average of three) in each of their away matches while the Seagulls have only had one game at the Amex in which they got fewer than two.
Combine these stats with whistle happy Pawson and both teams should collect over 1.5 cards.
Brighton v Leeds tips
BET BUILDER:
Brighton to win
Under 2.5 goals
Neal Maupay to score anytime
Home Team Total Cards – Over 1.5 & Away Team Total Cards – Over 1.5
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* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Saturday Selections
- TURBO TREBLE Thommo’s 7/1 flutter for Saturday’s 3pms
- ACCA: Paddy’s punchy 42/1 euro gamble for Saturday night
- BET BUILDER: Our tidy 27/1 bet for Arsenal v Newcastle
- THOMMO: Saturday selections from across the Premier League
- BEST BETS: Paddy Power’s ultimate guide to this weekend
Sunday’s football tips
- TRADER TIPS: Your best bet for Chelsea v Man Utd
- ACCA: Sunday’s 18/1 shot from the Prem’s 2pm kick-offs
- CHEAT SHEET: Paddy’s traders pick their punts on Sunday
- THOMMO: 13/2 punt will do in 4 Chelsea v Man Utd punts
- CAWLEY’S CALL: 4 FAI Cup final best bets for Bohs v St Pats
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