Breeders’ Cup tips: Friday night’s best bets at Keeneland

International racing trader Donal McKenna zips through Friday's card on day one of the megabucks meet.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

The excitement in the trading room is palpable. With the Breeders’ Cup draws made and the fields set for the off –  we have a brilliant juvenile card on Friday to kick the championship weekend off.

19:00 – Love Reigns

I am not one to complicate things too much and this race just sets up perfectly for Love Reigns coming out of trap two with main market rival The Platinum Queen drawn out in the carpark from stall 12.

Added to that she’s on the outside of Bob Baffert’s Speed Boat Beach who has a lot of gate speed. LOVE REIGNS showed brilliant early speed on her last start and as Golden Pal showed over course and distance here in 2020, that is imperative to winning this contest.  

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19:40 – You’re My Girl (each-way)

Chocolate Gelato narrowly beat YOU’RE MY GIRL in the Frizette Stakes last time at Aqueduct, but on that sloppy (wet) track, You’re My Girl idled at the bottom of the stretch and then rallied back against the smooth travelling Chocolate Gelato.

Now with a fast dirt surface, jockey upgrade to John Velazquez and a stall two draw, I like You’re My Girl to turn around the form. A strong each-way play for me.

20:20 – Delight

This is my least favourite Breeders’ Cup race of the night. I have a lot of respect for likely favourite Meditate, but have two concerns. Namely, will she stay the one mile trip having been dropped to 6f from 7f last time out and will she have the gate speed to clear the selection, DELIGHT.

It’s likely Meditate will be trapped wide going into the opening bend? Delight has proper gate speed and won her prep for this race in style over course and distance.

A repeat of that will make Delight very hard to beat.

I don’t think anything drawn wider than Mediate in stall 10 can win, but Free Look could be an each- way play or one to do in a forecast with Delight.

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21:00 – Cave Rock

I looked very hard for something to take this likely odds-on shot but couldn’t come up with the right each-way play. All the opposition have proper doubts over them and with CAVE ROCK getting the plum draw in stall three, I’ll take him to bring up his four-timer in the ‘winning distance’ market, for a bit of value.

Cave Rock to win by three lengths or more. 

21:40 – I’m Very Busy (each-way)

Similar to the Fillies Juvenile Turf, it will be hard to win from wider than stall 10 and gate speed will be important. Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien’s Victoria Road is drawn in stall one and hasn’t shown much gate speed to date so I am drawing a line through him.

Silver Knott likes to come from off the pace and while he looks the right price, he could find trouble in running. However, I’M VERY BUSY has a similar run style to him and is an each-way price. He was drawn very wide last time out and just failed to catch Major Dude at the Belmont at the Big A trials, run at Aqueduct.

Breeders Cup Tips:

19:00 – Love Reigns
19:40 – You’re My Girl (each-way)
20:20 – Delight
21:00 – Cave Rock
21:40 – I’m Very Busy (each-way)

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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