Juddmonte International winners trends as Baaeed bids to emulate Frankel at York

Let's take a walk down history lane...

By / Horse Racing Tips / 2 years ago

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Baaeed puts his perfect record on the line in the Juddmonte International on Wednesday as the superstar miler takes a significant step up in trip.

Unbeaten in nine races over a mile, including five Group 1s, Baaeed follows the pattern of Frankel’s final season on the track by tackling the York feature on what looks set to be his penultimate career start.

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Can the world’s leading horse on ratings cope with the extended trip or is there a rival lurking in the six-runner field capable of causing a shock?

We’ve taken a quick leaf through the history books to provide some helpful clues if you’re planning to have a punt on the Juddmonte International.

Ratings

The best place to start is to state the obvious that you need a classy horse to win the Juddmonte International. Of the last 12 winners, 10 were rated at least 120 while seven of those boasted a mark of 123 or more.

Baaeed (128) and Mishriff (124) are the only runners that break the upper ceiling while Native Trail (121) is the other to meet the slightly lower mark. Dubai Honour (117), High Definition (119) and Sir Busker (115) all fall short. Alenquer (120) is a non-runner.

Form

To further reinforce the idea that only the cream of the crop come out on top is that 11 of the previous 12 winners already had a Group 1 on their CV, while seven of those were multiple winners at the top level.

That statistic is a further red flag against Dubai Honour, High Definition and Sir Busker.

Odds

It’s worth looking towards the top of Paddy Power’s market for the Juddmonte International as seven of the last 12 winners were either the favourite or second in the betting. Baaeed and Mishriff fill the top spots at the time of writing and Native Trail is the only other runner available at a single-digit price.

Therefore, shocks are rare, although Arabian Queen – without a Group 1 on her CV before scoring at York – did manage to prevail at a starting price of 50/1 in 2015.

Distance

The big question mark is whether Baaeed can stay the trip having spent his whole career racing over a mile. The history books suggest proven form over the distance is important as six of the last 12 winners had already scored over 1m2f or 1m3f. Just two of the last 12 winners were having their first crack at the 1m2½f trip; Frankel stepping up and Australia dropping back.

High Definition and Native Trail have also yet to win at distances between 10 and 11 furlongs but both have previous runs in the book.

York

A statistic that could easily fly under the radar is that eight of the last 12 winners had not raced at York before scoring in the Juddmonte International. Baaeed and Native Trail are the only runners that are set to make their Knavesmire debuts.

Backers of last year’s winner Mishriff will also be concerned to know we haven’t had a repeat winner since Halling in 1996 and the last horse to attempt to defend their crown was Twice Over in 2011.

Conclusion

The trends suggest the Juddmonte International 2022 is set to be a clash between Baaeed and Mishriff as they both tick four of the five boxes. The race represents a significant step up in trip for Baaeed but that wasn’t an issue for Frankel 10 years ago and the four-year-old is rated 4lbs superior to the winner of last year’s renewal.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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