What’s better than one way to win a bet? How about two? Paddy offers markets in which either of two things occurring means your bet will pay out. The odds are naturally lower than for some other markets, but anything which increases your chances of picking a winner is definitely worth your consideration.
But how best to approach them? Data is your trusty lieutenant, as always, so let’s take a look back at the 2022/23 Premier League to see which players may have proved profitable in the ‘To Score or Assist’ and ‘To Score or be Shown A Card’ markets.
To Score or Assist
At first glance, these feel like two stats which belong together like strawberries and cream. And of course they do, in the sense that Player A will often get an assist when Player B scores a goal.
But for this market we’re interested in one footballer doing either of the two things, and it’s surprisingly difficult to be consistently strong at both.
In 31 seasons of Premier League football, there have only been 68 instances of a playing hitting double figures for both goals and assists. Some guys set them up, others knock them down.
Still, someone who is particularly strong at one aspect is worth leaning on in this market, and goals will always take precedence. In 2022/23, just six players recorded at least 10 assists while 23 men reached or breached that mark for goals.
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As we found when looking at other markets – such as Shots On Target – the total a player posts is not as important as how often they get on the board.
Erling Haaland might have scored six more goals than Harry Kane in the league last season, but the Tottenham man netted in more matches, 26 versus 23. While either would obviously be a sensible selection in this market, Kane was the more successful choice.
It’s similar for assists. Any player who has amassed a lot of them is a good choice but some spread them around more than others. For instance, Jarrod Bowen, Gabriel Martinelli and Mohamed Salah all recorded assists in nine Premier League games last season, but the former pair got nine assists in total whereas the Liverpool man recorded 13. That’s good for Salah and the Reds, of no benefit to punters in this market.
And a final tip: keep an eye on the underlying numbers, as players go through hot and cold spells. Anyone who has had a lot of shots or created plenty of chances in recent weeks without picking up a goal or assist may be about to revert to the mean.
To Score or be Shown A Card
This is a very intriguing market, as the two options are largely unrelated. Strawberries and, um, mustard maybe? The most frequently booked players tend to be defenders or holding midfielders.
That was largely the case for the eight players who picked up at least 11 yellow cards in the 2022/23 Premier League, with Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher the one exception.
But even though he plays further forward, the England international only scored three goals last term. Joelinton and Ruben Neves both got six and were in the most booked group, but that’s still not that many goals.
So, as with our previous market, it’s goals which dominate our chances of success. However, there are some forwards who collect more yellow cards than they do assists, so are worth keeping in mind here.
They tend to be the more physical strikers who will contest aerial duels with centre-backs. A mistimed elbow can quickly lead to a yellow card (and it’s always worth checking the booking rate of the match referee if you’re betting in this market).
Take Ivan Toney. A bet on him to score or assist was successful 17 times last season, but he paid out in 21 matches for a goal or a card. Similarly, Aleksandar Mitrovic’s figures for the two markets were 12 and 17 respectively.
Having received a ban for pushing a referee last season, the Fulham striker is likely to be a marked man by the officials next season. His payouts in ‘To Score or be Shown A Card’ could easily rise in 2023/24.
We’ll close with a quick word on James Maddison. He fell one assist shy of becoming the first player in Premier League history to reach double figures for goals, assists and yellow cards in a single season.
Leicester were relegated but he should be back in the top flight next season, so keep an eye on him for either of these markets.
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