Bet Builder Tips: In-form Andrew Beasley’s 24/1 Villa v Man City punt

Our tipster Andrew Beasley fired in a 27/1 punt last weekend and he's on the hunt again this Saturday.

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Manchester City (-1)
Both Teams To Score? No
Over 12.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards

*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Saturday 5.30pm: Aston Villa v Manchester City
TV: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League

Manchester City (-1)

The fact Villa have an abysmal record against City is hardly news, most clubs of their standing do over the last decade or so. Few will have plumbed quite the same depths though. The reigning champions have won the last nine meetings of the sides and have only so much as drawn one of the last 13.

Some of their performances, at least according to the stats if not necessarily the eye test, have not been as bad as their results. The problem is, they hadn’t played anyone that good, with their opponents mostly near them at the wrong end of the table, until they faced Arsenal in midweek.

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The 2-1 score line from the Emirates suggests it was a close match. It was not. Villa also took a whopping zero points from their 10 matches against the teams which finished in the top five of the Premier League last season. City, by very obvious contrast, only dropped points five times in their 30 matches against teams outside the leading quintet.

The recent games between these teams have been relatively close, with Pep Guardiola’s side winning the last three by the odd goal. But with the wildly contrasting form of the two sides to consider, Man City (-1) is a likely outcome.

Both Teams To Score? No

Paddy’s odds show that he is expecting both Teams To Score. The recent history of the head-to-head backs this up too, with only one clean sheet for either side in the last six meetings, and in none in the last four clashes at Villa Park.

City’s defence has been far from water tight recently too. They have been behind by two goals in four of their last seven league matches and one of those was against Villa on the final day of last season.

But aside from when they played Everton, the home side haven’t looked like scoring too often this season, so we’ll take ‘no’ in the Both Teams to Score market.

Over 12.5 Corners

These teams were among the top four in the division for total corners per game last season, albeit they derived their figures in opposite ways: City had the most while only four clubs conceded more than Villa. Those trends have not continued into 2022/23, but it’s always better to look at longer term figures at this early stage of a campaign.

The last four meetings of Villa and City have seen an average of 14.8 corners and no fewer than 12 each time. The home side should have plenty of defending to do so select Over 12.5 Corners on your coupon, pal.

Under 2.5 Cards

The disciplinary record in matches between these sides is downright odd. In the last six Premier League clashes there has only been nine yellow cards in total, when the average is 3.3 per match. Yet there have been three red cards, with Fernandinho, John Stones and Matty Cash having been ordered off in the last three years.

There were 4.2 cards per game in Villa’s matches last season, and they’re at exactly that level this term too. But City’s games have been so serenely navigated that there have only been 14 yellow cards so far.

Referee Simon Hooper is a relative newbie in top flight terms, with 51 Premier League matches under his belt. He’s fairly averse to booking players so with this likely to be one-sided let’s say there’s going to be Under 2.5 Cards shown.

Aston Villa v Manchester City Betting

Manchester City (-1)
Both Teams To Score? No
Over 12.5 Corners
Under 2.5 Cards

*A Bet Builder with these selections pays at approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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