* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
It feels like we’ve spent the last year and a half watching countless hours of football, too many own goals, Lorenzo Insigne grow up, Martin Dubravka get smaller and Ronaldo age like a fine wine – all for what? Eight teams to be eliminated!
However, even if the picture isn’t as clear as our efforts deserve it to be, it does mean that there’s still value to be had around the outright bets at Euro 2020. So, I’m here to guide you through your mid-tournament punts, here’s what has tickled my fancy.
I cannot believe the betting suggests that both France and England are more likely winners than the Italians.
Not only have they the best young goalkeeper in the world, they’ve clearly got the best attacking full-back, the most energetic midfield pairing not to feature Ngolo Kante, a 30-goal-a-season striker up top and a supporting cast that control a game within an inch of its life.
They’ve scored from everywhere thus far, as well as not conceding a goal. Oh, and they’re currently on a 30-game unbeaten run. Will Austria cause them problems? I doubt it.
The issue with this market is that it might well be a straight shootout between two players and they’re playing against each other in the last 16. I’d fancy Belgium to go through and for that reason, I couldn’t back Cristiano Ronaldo.
Lukaku is clever in that everything Belgium do goes directly through him. It isn’t a case of him dropping into play to pull defenders like Harry Kane or dribbling with the ball for 30 yards. If Belgium are attacking, he’s the first port of call.
They might not be on the easier side of the draw, but the big Belgian has scored huge goals against top sides his entire career – and that won’t be stopping now.
Are people blind to the fact that he’s been the best player thus far?
The Dutch are incredibly predictable and lacklustre outside of him in their movement off the ball – while the 10 shots he’s taken so far in this tournament, are as many as he took between the end of November and mid-February for Liverpool last year in the Premier League.
The Reds might well regret letting him leave if he lands the top individual honour here, and the way he’s played so far actually makes him the favourite in my eyes – particularly as they’re on the right side of the draw for him to do damage.
If we expect Sweden to beat Ukraine (and we should), then that potentially sets up a quarter-final tie with England. We all know how they react to games they should win, and Sweden seem the perfect foil for them in this regard.
So, consider the fact you believe them to be quarter-finalists already, the fact they held Spain scoreless, have proven capable of scoring goals and that they might well face England to get into a semi-final – then you have to believe there’s value in their price.
WALES v DENMARK TIPS
- Kick off the knockout stage in style with this 27/1 Wales v Denmark Bet Builder
- Andy Robson’s cheat sheet can help you crunch the numbers for your Bet Builder
- Paddy trader’s best bets & 14/1 flutter for Wales v Denmark
- PAUL INCE: My NAP for Wales v Denmark
ITALY v AUSTRIA TIPS
- Smash in our 27/1 Italy v Austria Bet Builder
- Our trader’s slick pick for Italy v Austria at Wembley
- PAUL INCE: My Italy v Austria best bets
ENGLAND v GERMANY TIPS
- Paddy trader makes his pick for England v Germany
- Paul Ince’s 3 top tips for Tuesday’s Wembley showdown
READ MORE ON EURO 2020
- Saturday’s 7/1 Euro 2020 double
- Bag a free bet every time your Golden Boot selection hits the target at Euro 2020
- Paddy puts first €10,000 from #SaveOurGame into Irish football
- Euro 2020: England’s route to this summer’s European Championship final
- Ally McCoist invades Carlisle after Scotland Euro exit