Football Tips: Our 28/1 five-way bet builder for Leeds v City on Saturday

Our expert Andrew Beasley has had a dig around to find value at Elland Road.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

While every match between now and the end of the season will be important for Liverpool and Manchester City, this weekend feels like it might prove decisive in the title race.

By the time Pep Guardiola’s side kick off at Elland Road, they will know the result of the Reds’ lunchtime trip to St James Park. Coming as it does approximately half an hour after the conclusion of their 2-0 win over Villarreal, and with Newcastle having the second-best Premier League record in 2022, there’s a definite possibility Liverpool will have dropped points.

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But although City have the easier fixture this weekend, it certainly won’t be a gimme. In the period since Leeds appointed Jesse Marsch, they have only taken three points fewer than the Citizens, albeit from one game more.

The former RB Leipzig boss has stemmed the leakiness that had set in under Marcelo Bielsa, and the home fans are certain to be bouncing for this one.

Let’s get into the bet builder…

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Saturday 30th April: Leeds United v Manchester City
TV: Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Premier League
Kick-off: 5.30pm

Match odds: Manchester City to win

Leeds may also benefit from having a relatively relaxed fixture list when compared to their opponents. Since they won 3-0 at Watford on April 9th, Marsch’s men have played just one game: their goalless draw at Crystal Palace on Monday night.

In the same period City have played six times, including facing Liverpool twice and both sides from Madrid. Nobody had sympathy for Guardiola when he complained about the state of his squad before fielding the most expensive starting XI seen in the 2021/22 Premier League last weekend, but his players have certainly been put through the wringer in the last few weeks.

However, as much as the above points are valid factors, it’s hard to look past a comfortable win for the visitors here. This is their final match of the campaign against sides currently in the bottom five, and so far they’ve won the lot while scoring 32 goals and conceding just twice. A 7-0 victory the last time these teams met makes up a sizeable chunk of that goal difference too.

And Leeds’ record against the big six (which was strong at home last season, with a win and five draws) has been abysmal in this campaign. They and Norwich are the only two teams yet to take a single point from the big boys. Leeds haven’t faced any of them under Marsch, in fairness, but this must still go in our Bet Builder as a win for Manchester City.

Under 2.5 goals

The Whites’ matches against the European Super League sides have averaged five goals each this season, mainly thanks to some very heavy defeats, and they are second in the Premier League for total goals in their games too. Again, things have been quieter since Bielsa was dismissed but four of their last six matches have paid out on over 2.5 goals.

City haven’t conceded a league goal on the road for three months though, so it’s going to be very tough for Leeds to score. The main question here is how many City are going to get. They’ve only scored more than twice in one of their seven away league games since Christmas. Granted, that was at Norwich who have been as bad defensively as Leeds this season, but there’s also the factor of their Champions League clash with Real Madrid to consider.

Both City and Chelsea won the league game between the two legs of their European semi-finals 2-0 last season and this should be similar, so we’ll take under 2.5 goals.

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Under 10.5 corners

Leeds’ matches haven’t tended to feature many corners this season. Indeed, City had just six when tearing them apart 7-0 at the Etihad.

Only Crystal Palace and Newcastle’s games have seen fewer, so the instinct here is to bet low. And although the likely league champions have had more away from home than any other team, they have averaged just six across their last three matches on the road.

With City unlikely to be at their fluent, attacking best, bet low on corners and take Paddy’s under 10.5 option.

Cards: Home Team Total Cards: Over 2.5 & Away Team Total Cards Under 1.5

In disciplinary terms, this is a real culture clash. Leeds’ have been shown comfortably the most yellow cards in the top flight this season – it’s like the 1970s never ended – and their opponents have been picking up almost two per game each week as well.

But there haven’t been many bookings in City’s matches. The away side in meetings between these teams has had a man sent off twice in the last five, but a third feels unlikely here.

Paul Tierney is the ref for this one and he books players at an above average rate so there should be a few cards. As the teams’ records are so far apart, rather than betting on the number of cards in total in the match, we’ll select over 2.5 for Leeds and under 1.5 for City.

Leeds v City Bet Builder Tips

*A Bet Builder with these five bets pays at approximately 28/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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