NFL SUNDAY AFC CHAMPIONSHIP BET BUILDER TIPS
11:30pm – Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Moneyline: Bengals to Win
- Total Points: Over 48
- Anytime Touchdown: Isiah Pacheco
- Over 6.5 Receptions: Ja’Marr Chase
*A Bet Builder on these 4 selections pays at 13/1 on PaddyPower.com. TAP HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.
Moneyline – Bengals to Win
The handicap line has been wild on this game all week. The Chiefs opened as 2.5 point favourites, that was quickly gobbled up by punters and turning the Bengals into 1 point favs because of uncertainty about the health of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.
Since then he’s been given a the Full Participation designation in each Chiefs practice session, which looks to have quelled the worries of bettors and swung the game back in KC’s favour in the market.
All this really tells us is that these are two teams that are very hard to separate.
Mahomes’ injury, a high-ankle sprain, usually sees players miss at minimum a month of play. He’s going to suit up this week, but he will not have the same mobility we’re used to. He could still pick a team apart from the pocket – look at how he handled the second half versus Jacksonville last week.
However, Cincy’s DC Lou Anarumo is a far more canny operator, and the Bengals defence a better unit, than their Jaguars counterparts. While Mahomes will still makes plays and move the ball, he’s not the same weapon when he can’t move. In the crunch, we’ll back the Bengals defence to make big plays and earn a fourth-straight win over the Chiefs.
Total Points – Over 48
Given the doubts about Mahomes, it is tempting to go under but he’ll still be able to find his receivers and the run game of KC looked pretty efficient last week when Chad Henne stepped in to play for a spell.
On the other side, the Bengals offence is full of playmakers and should have joy against the Chiefs defence for the most part as they’ve done the job against much better teams down the stretch.
Each of the previous three meetings in 2022 went over 50 points, and there’s a decent chance this goes to extra innings to separate the team, meaning 48 could be a bit low when the dust settles in Arrowhead.
Anytime Touchdown – Isiah Pacheco
While Chad Henne drew many plaudits for stepping in when Mahomes went down and marshaling KC’s offence down the field for a second quarter TD, it was running back Isiah Pacheco who made the big plays on that 99-yard scoring drive,
He finished with 96 yards on just 12 carries, looked great, and had a score in each of the final two regular season games, so is getting those opportunities near the goalline.
Also, Mahomes’ injury could mean more hand-offs to the running-backs, and Pacheco looks a hotter hand than Jerick McKinnon.
Over 6.5 Receptions: Ja’Marr Chase
This seems a low number given the way Joe Burrow finds a way to funnel the ball towards his old LSU teammate.
In his last ten games, Chase has finished with fewer than seven receptions once – last week against the Bills. Perhaps defences are getting tougher, but that was also a game blanketed in snow, which never makes it easy in the passing game.
He still had five catches on eight targets and I see little reason to believe he’ll make a habit finishing with less than half a dozen recpetions.
NFL SUNDAY AFC CHAMPIONSHIP BET BUILDER TIPS
11:30pm – Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Moneyline: Bengals to Win
- Total Points: Over 48
- Anytime Touchdown: Isiah Pacheco
- Over 6.5 Receptions: Ja’Marr Chase
*A Bet Builder on these 4 selections pays at 13/1 on PaddyPower.com. TAP HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.
*All odds quoted correct at time of publication but are subject to change
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