Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town and he likes The Model Kingdom in the 3.50 at Leopardstown.

Paul Jacobs Byline for Jumps Racing

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 months ago

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

14:02 Lingfield – Laheg
15:00 Musselburgh – Imaginary Dragon
15:20 Leopardstown – Hollow Games (each way)
15:50 Leopardstown – The Model Kingdom

    *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

      14:02 Lingfield – LAHEG

      Unlike the three selections that follow, Laheg may not come under the caption of ‘value play’, but I couldn’t leave this five-year-old out of my punting list this afternoon following his comeback run at Chelmsford City three weeks ago after a 204-day spell on the sidelines.

      Relatively solid in the betting that day at 5/1, the six-year-old was anchored in rear by the in form Jack Mitchell, but never fully settled through the first quarter mile as the pace up top was sedate to say the very least. Initially outpaced as the field turned for home, Mitchell wasn’t overly hard on his mount once the first prize had gone, but he still finished to some aplomb to come home a never nearer three quarters of a length third of eight to Prince of Zenda.

      I expect that kindness to be repaid here with the likelihood of a much faster pace on and third career win on his eighth start on the sand for the Marco Botti trained gelding.

      15:00 Musselburgh – IMAGINARY DRAGON

      This is easily the most competitive event at the Edinburgh track with a field of 15 set to go to post for this Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier. Of course several of these will merely want to reach the first four to qualify, but most of them probably need to win to take a hike in the weights and therefore have a chance of claiming a place at the Cheltenham Festival and it’s a fair prize in its own right to win.

      Absolute Notions put in a cracking round of jumping to win over two and three quarter miles on hock deep ground at Fairyhouse last time out and should therefore have no problem with the extra yardage here and is respected along with the very lightly raced nine-year-old gelding Peking Rose, but they both may have to play minor roles behind the Sandy Thomson trained charge Imaginary Dragon.

      We have only just touched the tip of the iceberg with this six-year-old who was hugely impressive over the extended two and three quarter miles at Kelso last time out despite running free on the lead. I expect Sean Quinlan will try and get a lead here in order to get him to settle a bit better and off his light weight the combination can improve past the majority of his exposed rivals the best of which is that seasoned pro Wakool.

            15:20 Leopardstown – HOLLOW GAMES (each way)

            I was hugely tempted by Good Time Jonny off a mark of 135 following a warm up race last time out over two miles at Naas where he never got competitive. Whether the extra five furlongs is enough of a stamina test for this former Pertemps Hurdle winner is in the balance, but he will surely be competitive off this rating in time and is possibly worth a saver at a huge price and worth watching out for in the next few outings when he does eventually return to a full three mile trip whether it be over fences or timber.

            But based on his third of 22 in the Galway Plate I am happy to give the Gordon Elliott charge Hollow Games another chance back over this intermediate trip after he patently failed to see out the three miles in the Listed Paddy Power Chase over Christmas. Only a pound above that Plate third here, the drying ground is also hugely in his favour and he could reward each-way players and gets the nod over the likes of Busselton and Classic Getaway. The betting may tell us plenty about his chance especially if the weather stays dry.

            15:50 Leopardstown – THE MODEL KINGDOM

            Another huge entry for this handicap, this time over hurdles and the layers are likely to be offering at least 5/1 the field unless of course we see a huge gamble beforehand. I Initially had a short list of just the five, but whittled it down to three with the likes of course and distance winner and well handicapped Call Me Lyreen interesting alongside the much shorter priced One Last Tango.

            The last named is fascinating as he was hugely impressive when winning off 122 over the course and distance at the back end of December and a nine pound penalty is just about right in a race where there is plenty of quantity but not an awful lot of quality. The highly likely end to end gallop will certainly favour his style of racing, a remark that also applies to the selection The Model Kingdom. He looked as though he had just joined the race two out last time out when running behind ‘Tango’ as he was swinging along on the bridle at that stage.

            However, he was hampered approaching the final flight that day and seemed to back out really quickly thereafter. A huge 15lbs turnaround gives him a major chance on the book here of closing that gap substantial between the two, but a lot also depends on young Liam McKenna riding him with balls of steel and creeping him into the race from the exit of the back straight. The seven-year-old obviously has a load of talent and it could just be how the race is executed by his partner that determines his destiny.

            Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

            14:02 Lingfield – Laheg
            15:00 Musselburgh – Imaginary Dragon
            15:20 Leopardstown – Hollow Games (each way)
            15:50 Leopardstown – The Model Kingdom

              *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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