Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacob’s Wednesday Value Plays includes a 10/1 shot

PJ's all over Wednesday's racing action from Chepstow & Kempton and fancies Truckers Lodge in the Welsh Grand National (14:50)

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By / Horse Racing Tips / 4 months ago

Paul Jacobs’s Racing Tips

13:05 Chepstow – Good Risk At All
14: 30 Kempton – Nube Negra
14:50 Chepstow – Truckers Lodge
15:09 Kempton – Strictlyadancer (each-way)

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

    13:05 Chepstow – Good Risk At All

    There may only be four runners in this race, but it still provides a relative test of value for us. For this almost certainly will not be a dawdle with Quel Destin knowing only the one way to race and top weight First Flow likely to be sitting in his slipstream for most of the journey.

    The last named is almost certainly on the downgrade, while the Paul Nicholls’-trained charge, GOOD RISK AT ALL, has yet to take on rivals of this class over fences and can miss out the odd obstacle. If the rains do come then War Lord could well be taken out which leaves us with the mud-loving selection. Many pundits reckon he is a much better horse caught first time out, but his record doesn’t justify that conclusion and to my eyes, it could just be that his second and third starts of a campaign have just been the wrong races for him.

    Sam Twiston-Davies will be able to ride him with balls of steel here and stalk his rivals and then gradually bring his charge into the race down the long home run. He has the confirmed staying power to pick this trio up and a mark of 137 still looks very handy when you remember that the seven-year-old was rated as high as 143 over timber. I think he is a really solid play here.

      14:30 Kempton – Nube Negra

      I think this race primarily revolves around ground conditions and while Boothill remains the progressive speedster in the contest, I am not sure that there is enough rain in the forecast to make him of interest here at such a restrictive price.

      Conversely, Dan Skelton’s charge, NUBE NEGRA, wouldn’t want any rain at all, but as you know the Sunbury-On-Thames track is one of the quickest draining courses in the whole of the land and if you have a look through the nine-year-old’s CV he is a much better horse when he doesn’t have to work through the turf for his living which enables him to preserve his rapid turn of foot off his classy high cruising speed as well.

      That last factor could be huge here as the free-going Elixir Du Nutz will try and scorch the turf in the first half of the race and try and force his better-class rivals into mistakes as early as possible. Good to soft would still be okay for Harry’s mount, any softer and I would go no bet here.

      14:50 Chepstow – Truckers Lodge

      This year’s Welsh National is hugely interesting because although the ground at the time of writing is merely good to soft, the South Wales track is set for an almighty downpour. That may not necessarily favour the out-and-out sluggers as it means the ground will be wet so it will be easy to go through unlike in previous years.

      That makes the Rebecca Curtis charge, Wayfinder, very interesting now that he has a huge 10lbs pull for a five-and-a-half length beating by Nassalam. However, the latter, going up to 3m6f for the first time in his career, may well be suited by the late rain and give him a better chance to see out the trip and he is a massive player here, in fact, both will be.

      The Galloping Bear has a cracking record when fresh and was merely outpaced last year before falling at the fourth last, a faster pace would certainly help the lightly raced 10-year-old. Super Survivor is totally unexposed, but his price has gone, while Complete Unknown will surely relish this test more so than the Hennessy one on good ground, but he has no easy task at the weights, so for the ‘value’ each-way play I fancy a huge run from the old boy, TRUCKERS LODGE.

      He comes here in better form than last year and is a standing dish in this race and I can easily see him hitting the first five. He is better suited by wet heavy ground than a stickier surface and Freddie Gingell has struck up a nice understanding with the old boy.

          15:09 Kempton – Strictlyadancer (each-way)

          I am a big fan of Tea Clipper and this quite obviously represents his easiest task since his last success in a Listed novice handicap chase at Chepstow two years ago. He has since been placed off marks of 145 and 142 so should be effective off top weight which equates to a rating of 137 here.

          Like Nube Negra in the Desert Orchid, he too wouldn’t want the rain to get into the ground as it seems to fully affect his jumping, but good-to-soft would certainly be no problem for him and he is rightly feared. However, right down the bottom of the weights I couldn’t resist having an each-way play on the Christian Williams’ trained entry, STRICTLYADANCER, with the Welsh trainer having a fabulous record around here in the valuable three mile handicap chases at the track.

          He has a record of five wins from 19 in chases thus far in his career and the bottom weight has a distinct liking for top of the ground and loves to trail in the wake of a fast pace before being asked for his effort. I have often thought that races unfold from some way out on the chase course here, a long run turning for home from the fourth last to the home stretch and if brilliant chase jockey Nick Schofield can hold onto him for as long as possible I fancy that getting weight from all of his seven rivals can pay off from the third last and a double figure price looks tempting.

          Wednesday’s Horse Racing Tips

          13:05 Chepstow – Good Risk At All
          14: 30 Kempton – Nube Negra
          14:50 Chepstow – Truckers Lodge
          15:09 Kempton – Strictlyadancer (each-way)

          *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

          Wednesday’s Racing Tips

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