There’s 10 races across Newmarket, York and the opening day of the new UK National Hunt season at Chepstow on Friday and Paddy Power Trader Joe Logue has crunched the numbers to see who represents a bit of value across the cards.
Joe Logue’s Horse Racing Tips
13:35 Chepstow – Aye Right
13:50 Newmarket – Inquisitively
14:10 Chepstow – Rock House
14:25 Newmarket – Skellet
15:00 Newmarket – Shouldvebeenaring
15:15 York – The Coffee Pod
15:35 Newmarket – Alsakib & Shadow Dance
15:50 York – Northern Express
16:10 Newmarket – Shuwari
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
13:35 Chepstow – Aye Right
The top-weight Aye Right stands out a mile in this ‘Veterans’ contest as the 10-year-old is the class act pitched in against seasoned handicappers. He ran well off a break on seasonal debut last year beaten by Sounds Russian at Kelso, but that looks a brilliant run now as Sounds Russian went on to compete in big graded chases last season culminating in a crack at the Cheltenham Gold Cup. This seasonal reappearance is a much easier task and it will be a big shock to see him overturned if he’s in the same form as his first run last season.
13:50 Newmarket – Inquisitively
The Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes over 5f starts the Newmarket coverage and I’m keen to take on Flora Of Bermuda as she may want softer ground. Inquisitively bolted up at York last time and looks to have improved for the trainer switch to Kevin Philippart De Foy, even after finishing third at Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes for Ollie Sangster. He still looks to be on an upward curve and is the top rated in the field. I expect him to be well supported in the market.
14:10 Chepstow – Rock House
A former point-to-point and bumper winner, Rock House made a winning start to hurdling last time out at Worcester when bolting up by 13 lengths on the bridle. Dan Skelton’s runner could give this race a real rattle. I’d have concerns about Captain Teague on his hurdling debut as he’ll have to run to a very high level to win this, despite finishing third in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Rock House is for me at the prices.
14:25 Newmarket – Skellet
Another Group 3 over 7f where Skellet should be a major player. Fourth on debut, she then won well at Salisbury – beating Serene Seraph – who subsequently bolted up next time out on the bridle at Newbury. Ryan Moore is booked too, which is an obvious plus. If you look at the opposition, Star Music improved and was good last time but looks like she needs to find more on the form book, while plenty of the rest are fairly exposed. Dance Sequence was impressive on debut and came from well behind a slow pace, but I have doubts about the form of the Charlie Appleby yard still.
15:00 Newmarket – Shouldvebeenaring
Audience looks a solid favourite but I’m just not interested at the price. Shouldvebeenaring has been narrowly beaten in two Group 1 contests recently and may appreciate the drop down to Group 2 company. His neck second to Regional in the Betfair Sprint Cup and third-place finish to Kelina in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp is good form.
- NEW TO PADDY POWER? PLACE A £5 BET ON SPORTS GET £20 IN FREE BETS!
15:15 York – The Coffee Pod
The Richard Hannon-trained The Coffee Pod has plenty of experience with three runs under his belt resulting in a mark of 86. The best of those runs was arguably at Ripon when second to Government Call, just ahead of beating Tropical Island, who subsequently won a handicap off 83 but is now rated 92. She is in the Listed 6f Rockingham Stakes on Saturday and if The Coffee Pod – who has also won since – could replicate that Ripon run now, he can go close.
15:35 Newmarket – Alsakib & Shadow Dance
The Old Rowley Cup is a competitive affair and Humanity looks the one to beat off a mark of 88. Again it comes down to prices and Alsakib is a decent alternative. I napped Royal Rhyme last time and he duly won well at Ayr. Part of the reason for this was that Alsakib – having been beaten at Goodwood by Royal Rhyme – was so good when winning at Ascot after that. Alsakib is unexposed at this 1m 4f trip and while a mark of 96 is no ‘gimme’, his profile suggests he can break a rating of 100 in time and can get his head in front again now.
Another alternative, Shadow Dance improved massively on his handicap debut winning by four lengths over 1m 3f and looked like a step up to this 1m 4f could see him improve again. He got a 9lb rise for that Haydock win but still looks like he could be capable of running a big race off a mark of 88.
15:50 York – Northern Express
Not a race I’ve a huge opinion on but a quick glance would make Northern Express stand out for me. He absolutely loves York and despite looking high enough in the weights off a mark of 102, he’s won off 99 here and ran a cracker off 102 and 101 before. Would completely put a line through his last run in the Ayr Gold Cup, as the 6f trip is way too short for him and a return to this track and trip should see him give a much better account of himself.
16:10 Newmarket – Shuwari
The Group 1 Fillies’ Mile sees Shuwari try to end her season in style at the top table. She’s already beaten the Moyglare Stud Stakes winner Fallen Angel in a Listed contest at Sandown and didn’t get the run of the race at Newmarket when second to Carla’s Way – who made all – after missing the break. She can be slow from the stalls but if she breaks on terms, Ollie Sangster’s filly is considerably better than anything else in the field.
Joe Logue’s Horse Racing Tips
13:35 Chepstow – Aye Right
13:50 Newmarket – Inquisitively
14:10 Chepstow – Rock House
14:25 Newmarket – Skellet
15:00 Newmarket – Shouldvebeenaring
15:15 York – The Coffee Pod
15:35 Newmarket – Alsakib & Shadow Dance
15:50 York – Northern Express
16:10 Newmarket – Shuwari
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the Melbourne Cup? Flemington date, start time, runners and betting
- Constitution Hill: Paddy Power’s betting specials as Nicky Henderson confirms hurdling plans
- When is the Cesarewitch? Newmarket date, start time, runners and betting
- When is the Champion Stakes? Ascot date, start time, runners and betting
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
