Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays across the tracks on Sunday

PJ's back on his relentless quest for winning value this weekend.

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*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

14:20 Perth – Hermann Clermont

Value is always subjective and, with only five set to go to post for this three mile novices handicap chase, you may very well argue that there is not much of that commodity on offer here. However, to my eyes this race is merely a matter of sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

Big Difference remains out of sorts despite being given some respite by handicapper and off a rating of 102 and Castletown could well be held at this level. Course and distance winner Fiston Du Mou is a player despite a 6lb penalty for winning over the course and distance two outings back, but this is a better race which leaves us with the selection, HERMANN CLERMONT, and Hold The Note.

The last named has had two wind operations but was beaten a massive 70 lengths last time out! So that leaves just the Gordon Elliot charge. Hermann Clermont remains a maiden under rules after 11 runs, but there were signs last time out at this track over the minimum trip that he was getting the hang of things.

But the big positive is the step up to a staying trip. Bred to relish it, being by that stamina influence, Al Namix, it will give him more time to weigh up his obstacles and I suspect it will be a case of 12th time lucky for the five-year-old.

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15:46 Stratford – Hooper

Four of the six entries in this class three handicap hurdle have won at this sharp track and that is always an advantage. Jamacho may not be the safest conveyance in the field, but he has a real motor inside and despite not taking his obstacles with much fluency last time out over the course and distance he readily disposed of Pillar of Steel and company to the tune of three parts of a length. Any improvement in his jumping would see him go close here off a 3lbs higher mark.

Veteran Glimpse of Gold arrives here on a four timer, but I will be surprised if he can beat HOOPER in receipt of just one pound. Nicky Henderson’s charge has not really fulfilled the promise he showed earlier on in his career including a bumper win here. However, he has been given some stiff tasks by the Lambourn maestro since, including when sent off at just 14/1 for the Grade Three Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow at the back end of last year.

But the key to his chance here is twofold. Firstly, he has been given a real chance by the assessor in this tight knit handicap and secondly, he should relish the drop back from two and a half miles to the minimum around this speed track and I fancy him to prove too classy at the weights for his rivals.

16:05 Perth – Fearless

FEARLESS had looked an above average recruit to the jumping game when with Rebecca Menzies and then Olly Murphy, winning a novice hurdle at Market Rasen by no less than nine and a half lengths. However, in 11 subsequent outings over hurdles and fences he has been beaten in excess of 96 lengths and that doesn’t even include an unseated rider and a pulled up effort to his name.

Now with Danny Brooke, the seven-year-old has looked a completely different proposition since an 80-day break and dropped down to the minimum distance. Off a good pace, the youngster was held up in rear at Aintree last month and gradually picked off his three rivals one by one before powering home from Sir Tivo to the tune of two lengths.

But the impressive asset he showed that afternoon was his ability to handle the difficult Mildmay fences with great aplomb and a 5lbs penalty looks a very fair price to pay here. His biggest danger should be course and distance winner Lucky Flight who comes here on a hat-trick, but almost certainly requires a career best to mix it with the tip.

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17:25 Fairyhouse – Franno

A typical low grade handicap over a mile and a half and despite several better class races to look at on the card, notably the Group Three Brownstown Stakes at 16:15, this appealed a whole lot more from a punting perspective. That fillies and mares graded race looked really tricky and I would much prefer to grab the each-way value here with extra places up for grabs.

Breffni Girl looks sure to be a popular each-way play at a huge price and may well be worth a saver here having been poorly drawn at Ballinrobe last time out and previously ducking out left as the stalls opened at Roscommon.

However, I just thought FRANNO showed that little bit more last time out when a never nearer four-and-a-quarter-length sixth of 14 in a moderately run race over 13 furlongs. Rated as high as 64 in September, the daughter of Free Eagle will go to the start off a mark of 59 here.

But, although nicely treated, the real key to her chance is the pace in the race. There are no less than two confirmed front runners in the field and a mighty seven pressers. That should give her a lovely tow into the contest and I expect her to pass the majority of her rivals down the home stretch at a double figure price.

Sunday’s racing tips

14:20 Perth – Hermann Clermont
15:46 Stratford – Hooper
16:05 Perth – Fearless
17:25 Fairyhouse – Franno

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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