Horse Racing tips: Paddy Power’s cheat sheet for Saturday’s ITV action

Strike Red was unlucky behind Gale Force Maya at Newmarket last time out. He was one to put in the notebook and he pops up here again. Strike Red is drawn in stall 20 and he’ll do me.

This looks wide open. JUMBY is a really good stick for Eve Johnson-Houghton and I have a feeling he will inprove a bundle for his first run back the other day. William Buick takes the ride on a horse who ended last term in great shape and stays 7f so should be keeping on well now the cobwebs have been blown away.

First Folio raced in France as a two-year-old. He switched to James Ferguson last year and won a Yarmouth handicap off 80 and won at York two starts later off 90. He didn’t go on the soft ground in the Stewards Cup consolation race but then finished a close 4th at Newmarket on the July course off 98 and at York off 97 in a three-year-old 6f sprint when only beaten by a half length. That York form is working out well already this season with the winner just touched off in a Newmarket handicap and the 2nd winning twice this season already, while there were plenty of subsequent winners in behind. Ferguson is also red hot with 4-7 the last two weeks (57%). The fast ground really suits him and he looks to have a really solid chance.

ASJAD ran to a lofty rating when making a successful start for new connections at Redcar recently and can defy a penalty in this big-field handicap. 4-y-os have done well in this race in recent seasons and there could be more to come from him. Strike Red caught the eye on his reappearance over C&D at the Craven Meeting and might be set for a big run. Jumby and Summerghand are a couple of others for the shortlist.

Pisanello moved to David O’Meara in July and ran ten days later. He disappointed a bit but he bounced back earlier this month with a win at Beverley. O’Meara might have found what makes him tick. He could be rated 100 by the end of the year.

A handicap over 1m. ON A SESSION is 2lb lower than when fourth in this last year and has a great each-way chance for David and Nicola Barron and Graham Lee. In his favour is a fabulous draw, three runs this season to get him race-fit, and a race makeup that should really suit. He’s a cracking each-way bet.

Pisanello was running in Group races in 2020 when trained in France and won at Listed level. He switched to O’Meara last year in July and struggled in three runs for him with his mark dropping from 85 to 77. He was impressive with how well he finished when winning at Beverely last week off 77, as he met plenty of trouble in running. He’s up 6lbs but could be one that could be rated much higher now that O’Meara has found the key to him.

PISANELLO overcame trouble in running to score at Beverley last time and, provided they go a solid pace again, he might well prove capable of following up. The majority have some sort of chance but, of the opposition, Astro King and Empirestateofmind stand out the most.

Dhahabi has had a major layoff but on his last start he was third to One Ruler which is pretty solid form. I’m going to side with him. I have doubts over the top weight horse Movin Time. Harry Davies is taking 7lbs off his back so I’m thinking Roger Varian feels he’s maxed out. Fast Medicine is a short priced favourite but I’ll take a chance on Dhahabi and Charlie Appleby.

Another handicap but this time over 1m 1f. FAST MEDICINE will take some stopping here for Peter Chapple-Hyam and Cam Hardie. My selection ran off 79 when scoring at Nottingham the other day and comes here with a 5lb penalty to effectively races off 84. That looks workable as he won well and the slightly longer trip will make no difference.

Fast Medicine bolted up at Nottingham on his reappearance and is 6lb well in under a 5lb penalty but that was only a class 4 event. Movin Time carries top weight but he bolted up in a maiden here last May beating Kemari who went on to win the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot and is rated 109. He was 5th at Royal Ascot in the Hampton Court Stakes and 4th at Listed level at Newbury last July and off since. He was gelded but has Harry Davies claiming 7lb off him and dropping in to a handicap will suit him. Roger Varian has his string in decent form also with 5-28 (18%) in the last two weeks.

FAST MEDICINE is in a stronger race than at Nottingham but he was impressive that day and still looks well treated under a penalty. Dhahabi has a long absence to overcome but it’s interesting his top yard has persevered with him and he should still do better. Forest Falcon and and Movin Time are others to note.

I keep getting drawn back to Bashkirova. She was good on her first couple of starts last year. She disappointed last time out at Doncaster but I’m willing to chance her for William Haggas and Stevie Donohoe.

Here’s a Listed fillies’ event over 1m. PRIMO BACIO should be too good here for Ed Walker and Richard Kingscote. the 111-rated filly was a fine fifth behind Snow Lantern in the Group 1 Falmouth last season and has always been held in high regard. This trip is within her compass although you could argue 7f is ideal. That said, I would expect her to just be a class above her rivals.

Zanbaq is interesting as she won on her debut at Kempton and cost £450k but this a fair step up. Almohandesah was 2nd in the Nell Gwyn at 28/1 and gets a stone off the older horses. On ratings she has a big chance but I wouldn’t fully trust her rating. Primo Bacio progressed nicely last season, bolting up in a Listed race at York from subsequent Group winners Creative Flair and Snow Lantern. She was a 1.5l 5th in the Falmouth. If she is anywhere near her best she should taking plenty of beating.

Some progressive filllies on show here and the returning MRS FITZHERBERT is taken to emerge on top and gain a first win at this level. Primo Bacio ended last term below par but rates a big threat on her best form and is next on the list. Both Bashkirova and Zanbaq have more to offer too and need considering in an intriguing listed event.

I’m going with Atalis Bay, who’s a decent price. Robert Cowell has a great record with sprinters. Atalis Bay won at Nottingham in April last year and was second behind Winter Power at York at the Dante meeting. He could have improved and he can definitely get involved with his rating.

A Group 2 sprint in the Palace House over 5f. I’ll chance KHAADEM each-way here for Charlie Hills and William Buick. My hope has always had plenty of ability and ran really well at Meydan two runs ago when third behind Man of Promise. He didn’t do so well last time but that’s Khaaden. He’s in and out. Has a bit to find on ratings but if on a going day every chance.

When Khaadem won the Stewards Cup back in 2019 off 107 I was convinced he would win a Group 1. Fast ground is important to him and he hasn’t got that much in the last few seasons. He was 4th in the 2020 July Cup but did win a Doncaster listed sprint over 5f on fast ground last September and was gelded before running well in Meydan. He was 3rd in a 6f Listed race behind Man Of Promise and Lazuli. Charlie Hills made a fast start to the season, operating at 25% overall.

A case can be made for a few of these, but HURRICANE IVOR made big strides in 2021 and is fancied to go in on his return before stepping up further in class. Came From The Dark rates a big threat on form for all his 10-month absence slightly tempers enthusiasm. Tis Marvellous, Arecibo and Twilight Calls all figure on the shortlist too in a very open Palace House.

It’s hard to oppose Native Trail but his price isn’t attractive considering the depth of this race. Lusail is a huge price which shows how good this race is. Point Lonsdale (each-way) looked the best of Aidan O’Brien’s two-year-old’s throughout last summer. He impressed at Ascot and Leopardstown, then won again at the Curragh. He was no match for Native Trail in the National Stakes. I firmly believe Native Trail is the best horse but at the prices, I’d chance Point Lonsdale each way.

The big one in the first British Classic of the season, namely the Group 1 2000 Guineas over 1m. There’s no doubt NATIVE TRAIL is the one to beat for Charlie Appleby and William Buick and I’ve long advised people to get on at much bigger prices than he will be on Saturday. The son of Oasis Dream is built like a bull and oozes class. He was the champion juvenile landing Group 1s in the National Stakes at the Curragh and Dewhurst at Newmarket.

Native Trail is 5-5 and was impressive in winning the Craven. He easily beat Point Lonsdale in the National Stakes at the Curragh too. He won the Dewhurst easily and has a big stride and comes home strong. Charlie Appleby is red hot and he’s difficult to oppose.

With four places on offer I will put up Tacarib Bay at a wild price. He won at Haydock on his debut and then ran in the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury where he did too much and got nailed late by Light Infantry and Cresta. Noble Truth was 4th and he was 2nd in the Lagardare. He was well backed in the Free Handicap here a few weeks ago but found New Science too strong. I wouldn’t be surprised if he nicked a place here.

Timeform’s three leading juveniles of last year line up in the first Classic of 2022 and it’s hard to look beyond NATIVE TRAIL after his pleasing return in the Craven. That took his unbeaten run to 5 and he looks set to improve again, with a well-run Guineas sure to suit him. Aidan O’Brien seeks a remarkable sixth winner since 2012, with Luxembourg following the same route as several others before him, including his sire. Coroebus, a stablemate of the selection, is exciting and highly respected.