*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
14:55 Kempton – Saga
Just the four runners here, but in his brief career to date, Bayraq has raced both prominently and freely and so he appears the most likely pace source. He strikes me as becoming a much better three-year-old than juvenile, but could give a nice lead to the selection Saga. The Gosden charge was beaten two lengths by recent Spring Cup winner Modern Games and then landed an above average maiden at Ascot. There is plenty more to come from this son of Invincible Spirit.
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15:15 Fairyhouse – Folcano (each way)
Some of the older horses in this field are very well handicapped and a couple have shown that the fire still burns bright. But it could be that the younger entries dominate this 2m5f handicap hurdle and chief among them is the the Gordon Elliot trained runner Folcano. For some reason his handler had been trying to stretch him out to three miles, but for a while that has seemed a step too far. His last run in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham wasn’t a bad performance (every chance until fading two out) and this drop to two and a half looks a good call. The in form Carrig Sam (needs a career best) and the well handicapped Capilano Bridge look other big players here.
15:30 Kempton – Belloccio
This Roseberry Handicap is one of the traditional big events of its type during the first part of the flat season, although sadly it is a sand handicap rather than a turf one. This looks wide open and the pace angle tells us they won’t hang about here with at least four confirmed pressers. But I wanted to row in with a charge that I think is the best treated in the race, David Menuisier’s charge Belloccio. After running down the field in the Dante last year, his rating has slipped from 102 to 96 and he has a fair record fresh and is preferred at an each-way price to Farhan (stable in good form) and Boss Power.
15:50 Fairyhouse – Grand Roi
A decent prize for this Grade Two event where the bulk of the field seem unable to be competitive at the highest table and/or may be don’t get home over three miles here. Flame Bearer has made good progress this season, but this requires more and I would rather rely on some of the more established performers here. Darasso has been lightly campaigned since the turn of the year and the drying ground is in his favour, while the betting will tell us plenty about the unexposed Jon Snow. However, this is Grand Roi‘s level and a repeat of his third to Darasso in the Lismullen Hurdle and on 5lbs better terms here may be good enough to reverse those placings.
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16:05 Kempton – My Astra
This Snowdrop Fillies Stakes is traditionally for those fillies just short of black type, but several former winners have used this as a spring board to better things through the summer months. With his stable in good form I think that the lightly raced William Haggas’ trained runner My Astra will be the answer. I loved the way that this daughter of Lope de Vega went through her victories in a maiden and novice company last season and she looked ill at ease on her third start at three in France when a close-up second in the Prix Solitude in France. She has the physique to step forward again this year and probably has Potapova to worry about most of all.
16:20 Fairyhouse – Janidil
Willie Mullins has four of the six entries for this Grade Two Chase and despite having to give weight away all round I think that his Janidil will take all the beating. He has run exclusively in Grade One events this year with a season’s best coming when a distant second to Allaho in the Ryanair. A clean round of jumping would make him favourite over Easy Game and the front running Blackbow here.
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17:00 Fairyhouse – Lord Lariat & Death Duty
I think that this is the best strength in depth Irish National that we have witnessed for many a year and as such I have picked out two in the 30 runner entry against the field. Rank outsider Lord Lariat has a tremendous record at Fairyhouse and although he is no certainty to see the trip out, his sound jumping and love of decent ground will count for plenty here. His price allows us to take one of the middle priced runners and that vote goes to Gordon Elliot’s charge Death Duty. One of six runners that took a part in the Aintree Grand National, he was still swinging along nicely under Jordan Gainford before his unseating his partner at the Canal Turn when not getting the clearest of passages.
Sixth in this race last year when badly out of form, the 11-year-old has looked a completely different proposition this year and arrives here off several good runs before the Liverpool race most notably when landing the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown. He arrives here on a 2lbs lower mark than 12 months ago and could well be the best handicapped of the Elliot battalion. Of the remainder I have the most respect for both the youngster Velvet Elvis along with Mount Ida and Gaillard du Mesnil. I have already backed the last named for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup so if I’m right he will have to be competitive despite his relative lack of experience off a rating of 154.
Paul Jacobs’ best bets:
14:55 Kempton – Saga
15:15 Fairyhouse – Folcano (each way)
15:30 Kempton – Belloccio
15:50 Fairyhouse – Grand Roi
16:05 Kempton – My Astra
16:20 Fairyhouse – Janidil
17:00 Fairyhouse – Lord Lariat & Death Duty
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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