Horse Racing tips: Paul Jacobs’ 5 value plays across the tracks on Saturday

Our tipster Paul has your picks sorted at Aintree, Del Mar, Doncaster and Wincanton.

Paul Jacobs Generic

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 years ago

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

12:55 Doncaster – Glenartney

Although the likes of Zawara and Lady Hayes are officially rated higher (and Vesela and Via Sestina could close the gap on her), the Ed Walker-trained filly GLENARTNEY looks perfect for the set-up of this race based on her current profile and season to date. The first huge factor in her favour is that the daughter of Le Havre comes here relatively fresh and has been running well in races that haven’t necessarily suited her.

Although far from disgraced in Listed events at Hamilton and York, (on both occasions the ground was quick enough) her galloping style and action suggests she wants at least some give in the turf. It is worth remembering that she ran one hell of a race in Musidora Stakes at York, running way too freely for much of the race and yet still running the mighty Snowfall to 6-and-a-half lengths.

The long home stretch of Town Moor with dig in the ground looks made for her and this will be only her third start since that Oaks’ trial run, which means she will arrive her fresher than most. The aforementioned Via Sestina could turn out to be her most dangerous rival having really taken the eye when storming to victory in a Newmarket handicap off a mark of 89.

NEW TO PADDY POWER?

13:08 Aintree – Deise Aba

One of any number of Pertemps Hurdle qualifiers before the turn of the year, I am taking a bit of a flyer on this Phillip Hobbs-trained runner DEISE ABA in the hope that he isn‘t merely using this as a warm-up for a dash at the Welsh National at Chepstow next month. A race he was originally being aimed at 12 months ago.

Following two pulled up efforts at the beginning of last season that plan was quickly aborted after he ran a lifeless race behind the subsequent winner, Secret Reprieve, in the annual warm-up race for that marathon at the beginning of December.

Given a break by his esteemed trainer, the youngster bounced back to form when defying horrible conditions at Sandown Park, before blowing out in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival where the good to soft ground allied to some sloppy jumping saw him a beaten horse by the halfway stage.

Rated 8lbs lower over hurdles, the still very lightly raced eight-year-old will have his conditions to boot and in the hope that he is ready and fit enough to do himself justice – with the stable on fire at moment -he could be the best each-way call in the race ahead of the likes of topweight Koshari and Supreme Escape.

14:40 Doncaster – Skycutter

As always, the November Handicap looks excruciatingly tough for us punters to decipher, but there is plenty of value to be had throughout the field. Outsider Deja would have real chance at a price if returning to form as the handicapper has relented with him and any significant move in the market place should be noted. Meanwhile, the likes of Dark Jedi, the back to form Sam Cooke and strong-staying Prince Alex are all respected with conditions in their favour.

However, as long as the ground stays on the testing side I reckon that the Philip Kirby runner SKYCUTTER has an outstanding each-way chance and at the current prices makes plenty of appeal.

He was a confirmed mud lark in France and the slowest ground that he has raced on in four outings in the UK since coming over has been good to soft (three times). On one occasion, he wasn’t at all well served by a pedestrian pace which came at York last time out.

Up a quarter of a mile in trip, and on a genuinely testing surface, we may now finally see the real Skycutter. A mark of 88 under the experienced John Egan looks a combo well worth supporting.

Wincanton

15:00 Wincanton – Ofalltheginjoints

This year’s renewal of the Badger Beer is a bit different to last year with good ground forecast and, even over this trip around here, jumping fluently and not being too far out of your ground is a huge positive.

That means that 2020 hero El Presente must have outstanding claims even though he is set to run off a 6lbs higher mark, while Cap du Nord with the very able Jack Tudor taking 3lbs off his back must be a player on such a surface off a mark of 132.

However, this piece is all about finding double figure price and the Tizzard charge OFALLTHEGINJOINTS fits the bill very nicely.

It wasn’t too long ago that he was strutting his stuff at the Aintree Festival and hacking to the second last in the Grade 3 Betway Handicap Chase before backing off in the final quarter mile to finish an eight lengths fifth of 13 behind Happygolucky. That run came off a rating of 141 when his stable was in simply dire form, and he now finds himself racing off 137 with the yard on fire.

His run over hurdles last time out at Uttoxeter may have been disappointing to some, but that was run at a crawl and to my eyes it was simply to blow away the cobwebs for this. If he has taken a nice step forward from that outing, then as with most of the yard’s runners he could be a nicely treated animal and I’m prepared to take that chance at big odds here.

22:20 Del Mar – Ivar

The Breeder’s Cup has always been a strong betting port of call for me in the last 20 years and I thought that the Turf Mile was the most interesting event of the card.

Most European fans will quite rightly focus upon Mother Earth and Space Blues here. The former looks perfect for Del Mar being a well balanced sort with a nice turn of foot, and she has reportedly trained well since coming over. Space Blues has won the City of York Stakes and Prix de la Foret on his last two starts, looking particularly well suited to the deep turf in Paris last time out – something he will certainly not get here and he makes the market for several at a bigger price.

The point to make about this year’s renewal is that there are several runners that love to be at the sharp end from the off and this could be run at a searing pace throughout, That will suit IVAR. Stall 14 of 14 is of no worry to me as he has to come from off the pace AND just doesn’t possess the high cruising speed to lie up.

His two recent runs in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf at Churchill Downs and then in the big trial for this, the Keeneland Turf Mile, when he came home a closing 2-and-a-quarter lengths fourth of 12 behind In Love, shows he will relish a fast run trip. With luck in the run down the home stretch, I expect him to get a whole lot closer with the hope that he can cause a big upset. Although, a place will do us as mighty odds.

Paul Jacobs tips summary:

12:55 Doncaster – Glenartney
13:08 Aintree – Deise Aba
14:40 Doncaster – Skycutter
15:00 Wincanton – Ofalltheginjoints
22:20 Del Mar – Ivar

DON’T MISS

  • CHECK OUT OUR BRAND NEW SNAZZY RACECARDS FOR EVERY SINGLE RACE TODAY
  • … THEN GET ALL THE WINNERS BEFORE ANYONE ELSE WITH OUR FAST RESULTS

READ

The latest racing odds are on PaddyPower.com now

The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know

What do you think?