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Ruby Walsh has cast his eye over a packed Saturday of racing, picking out his best bets at Naas, Haydock and Ascot.
Speaking on the latest episode of Paddy Power’s From The Horse’s Mouth podcast, our resident jockey-turned-pundit has made 10 selections to see – including an outsider in our second Millionaire Chase qualifier.
12.30pm, Naas – Call Me Lyreen
Gars En Noir is in great form. He’s a fine big horse but he’s only a novice until the end of this month so when December rings in he’s in open company. He’s a little bit betwixt and between as a four-year-old. Willie Mullins won’t go chasing with him as a four-year-old so he’s a chaser for this time next year who will run in this race. There is another race quite similar to this one at Limerick at Christmas and I imagine he will go there as well, but he is a horse for the future. He’s a horse we like but he has very few options over hurdles.
I could see Gars En Noir winning a race like this but I think CALL ME LYREEN is the dark one. He sprung a surprise a Tramore when he won and again at Sligo. He’s was first string but unfancied at Tranmere and was second string at Sligo. I think for the future I would most definitely want Gars En Noir out of this race.
1.02pm, Naas – Fakir Doudairies
I think it’s a four-runner race with four frontrunners. It will be a helter-skelter contest and it will come down to stamina – in which case, FAKIR DOUDAIRIES is the strongest stayer out of the four of them.
1.37pm, Naas – Dinard Rose
Any Second Now has to carry top weight and hasn’t run since he won the Paddy Power Chase at Naas back in February. That was being used as a prep for the English Grand National over 2 miles so the trip shouldn’t inconvenience him, but it is his first run of the season and he has plenty of weight to give away to some unexposed horses.
Willie Mullins runs Dandy Mag, who hasn’t run in almost a year so you would have to think he will improve for the run. Red Gerry has been very impressive for Noel Meade – only a four-year-old – and I actually like another of Noel’s – DINARD ROSE. Only a four-year-old, but much more hardened and was very impressive at Thurles on the last start. I think, with 10st 1lb on her back, she’ll be the one for me.
1.50pm, Haydock – Arrivederci
ARRIVEDERCI beat War Lord well at Wetherby three weeks ago and he will confirm that form. So if you were pushing me, Arrivederci, but only if you were pushing me for something.
2.05pm, Ascot – Itchy Feet
Kim Bailey and David Bass are absolutely flying and have Imperial Aura in this while Real Steel makes his debut for Paul Nicholls, having been trained by Willie Mullins. He ran a blinding race in the Gold Cup, and if you’d stopped the race turning in for home you would have said “wow, the horse in the red on the outside won” but he didn’t, he faded to finish sixth so you could say he didn’t stay. He pulled up in the Red Mills Chase, he won in Down Royal and he won at Thurles last year. He won first time up, which is probably a good thing, but he can be a little bit in-and-out. Going right-handed definitely suits him so he could be a massive player.
But I just think maybe ITCHY FEET. He got a run under his belt at Aintree, unseated in the Marsh Novices’ Chase last year and whichever way you look at it, Imperial Aura ran in a handicap at Cheltenham. At least Itchy Feet contested a graded race, and so did Real Steel. I’m going for a little bit of class and probably going for the younger horse here. Olly Murphy thinks a helluva lot of Itchy Feet.
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2.25pm, Haydock – The Jam Man
This is great race on paper, but I swore when I walked out of Navan earlier this month that there would be no way I would oppose THE JAM MAN over hurdles. He bolted up in the Troytown off a mark of 129, and he runs off 148 here – Maxine O’Sullivan’s claim brings that back down to 143, so he’s effectively 14lbs higher than when he won the Troytown over fences.
He’s a small little horse, and I know he jumped well in the Troytown but you would have to think that hurdles could make him a better horse. I just wouldn’t oppose him – whether that means he wins or not… you’d have to say he has a chance. Relegate is not mad about jumping hurdles.
2.40pm Ascot – Laurina
LAURINA beat Minella Indo first time out at Gowran Park last year then went to Leopardstown and made a few mistakes and bled. She then bled in Sandown as well, or broke a blood vessel, so I am a firm believer – even though I don’t have the science to back it up – that fresh horses, on the first run of the season, is when they are least likely to break a blood vessel. I’m going with her, getting all the weight.
3.00pm, Haydock – Lostintranslation
Daryl Jacob has to ride Bristol De Mai the way he rode him in 2017 and 2018, which is literally going as fast as Bristol De Mai can go from flag fall, if he is to have any chance. He’s getting a little older, but he loves Haydock so there’s no point saying you don’t fancy him. I’m not certain about Clan Des Obeaux. He’s bolted in in two King Georges but I’m just not sure about him.
I do like LOSTINTRANSLATION. Obviously something went wrong in the King George when he was pulled up, and then he had a wind op. He ran a cracking race in the Gold Cup and he won this last year. I know he’s the favourite, but if you said to me three years ago that you can go to Haydock and ride one of these, I’d be putting on Lostintranslation’s colours.
3.17pm, Ascot – Marracudja
I think we’ve picked the hardest race to put as the Millionaire qualifier, for obvious reasons. The top six in the betting are all running off career-high marks, so if you think there is an improver in there that can justify their career-high mark, then so be it.
Out of the rest – as everyone gets older, they get slower so Gino Trail over 2 miles, at 13 years old, could be too slow. That only leaves MARRACUDJA, so I’m gong for him, William Marshall is claiming 7lbs off him, which brings him down to 10st 3lbs. He ran disappointingly in the Haldon Gold Cup behind Greaneteen but I don’t know if it was that bad and you only have to go back to last season where he was fifth in this race. He was third behind Defi Du Seuil in the Grade 1 at Ascot – the Matchbook Clarence House – and he beat Hawk High at Wetherby on the second day of the Christmas meeting there so the form can be there.
More Top tips for the Millionaire Chase qualifier
- Ruby Walsh and Frank Hickey’s punts for the race at 15.17
- Paddy’s punting panel reveal their selections
- Our runner-by-runner guide to the big race at Ascot
3.35pm, Haydock – Perfect Candidate
Don Poli could possibly be rejuvenated enough to win a race like this, but he looked incredibly slow the last day at Aintree behind Minellacelebration. Stepping up in trip and a different track will suit him, but he’s still got 11st 7lbs and I thought he looked slow.
I’m going to go for an older horse, which probably contradicts what I just said, but I think PERFECT CANDIDATE has won around here before and he loves extreme trips, Paddy Brennan is riding soft ground really well, he knows where the winning post is and I’m going to go for one older horse to beat another old horse.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
Ruby Walsh bet summary – Saturday, November 21
Naas
12.30pm – Call Me Lyreen
1.02pm – Fakir Doudairies
1.37pm – Dinard Rose
Haydock
1.50pm – Arrivederci
2.25pm – The Jam Man
3.00pm – Lostintranslation
3.35pm – Perfect Candidate
Ascot
2.05pm – Itchy Feet
2.40pm – Laurina
3.17pm – Marracudja
Read More:
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- Ruby Walsh’s 10 to follow for the 2020/21 jumps season
- Paul Jacobs’ 10 to follow for the 2020/21 jumps season
- Mick Fitzgerald’s 10 to pay their way for the new jumps season
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