Football betting strategy guide for new and experienced punters

Using a football betting strategy can help focus your mind and place bets that actually work for you

Football betting strategy


Football betting strategies come in plenty of different forms but they all aim to deliver the same outcome: more winning bets. Whether you’re a newcomer to football betting or an experienced player, there’s never a bad time to begin or hone your strategy for betting on football.

Unearthing the best football betting strategy requires a bit of time and effort, as well as a lot of perseverance. And that’s where Paddy is here to help. Below are six of the simplest football betting systems you can pick up today.

Six Football Betting Strategies

Each of the below bet strategies offer varying levels of risk but, if followed correctly, aim to deliver a consistent level of profit per bet.

Stake Conscious Betting

Let’s start with a simple one. Football betting carries risk and one of the best strategies to reduce risk is to reduce your stake size. Betting small amounts, even if it’s on wild outcomes, reduces the risk of you running out of funds. Of course, you should never bet more than you can afford.

Football is great for stake conscious betting because punters can wager small amounts on high odds, and there’s always a chance those odds will pay out. That’s because football has a tendency to produce more shocks than other sports.

Shocks don’t just mean underdogs winning big games. Betting small amounts on defenders to score, red cards in friendlies and substitutes scoring can often carry high odds that, with a low stake, can still pay out good sums without risking your entire pot.

Double Chance Accas

The Double Chance is the perfect bet for risk-conscious punters who want to bet on two of the three match result outcomes. But if you’re on the hunt for higher odds then Double Chance Accas can swiftly become your friend.

With Double Chance Accas, you can build large wagers where each individual bet carries low risk. Betting in favourites to win or draw across a seven- or eight-fold acca can greatly boost your odds with a tiny stake.

Index Betting

Index betting involves players setting themselves a set level in their betting account. When they win bets and go above that level, they withdraw their winnings. When they lose bets and go below, they reduce their average stake.

For example, you set yourself a £20 index in your Paddy Power account. You bet £2 on England to beat Germany at odds of 2.50, and win. You now have £25 in your account. So, you withdraw £5 and your balance reverts back to £20. You keep placing £2 bets and, when you win, you withdraw. Eventually you lose a bet and fall to £18 in your balance, underneath your index. But, rather than trying to spend your way out of the deficit, you reduce your stake by half. Your next bet is £1. If you win, you might go back over your £20 index and can start betting £2 again. If you lose, you cut your stake again to 50p, and then 25p, and so on until you win again.

With this method, you can still chase big wins without risking your entire balance and get into the habit of withdrawing funds regularly.

Home Underdogs

Home teams win 46% of their home games in the Premier League, while draws and defeats are split roughly equally at around 27%. Over the course of a season home underdogs will generally win more games that they shouldn’t win than they do on the road. It goes to reason, then, that home underdogs are worth backing more than away underdogs if you’re seeking an against-the-odds bet.

Value Comparison

Having a knowledge of football is key to value comparison betting. Here, it’s all about looking at the odds, figuring out the implied probability, and comparing that data to your own knowledge of the sport.

For example, Scotland might be 4.00 underdogs to beat Spain in a Nations League game. However, what the odds don’t show is that Scotland are on a three-game winning streak, need to win to avoid relegation, and Spain’s squad for this international break is missing a load of key injured players.

The value is in Scotland at 4.00 because, as you realise, their chances of winning the game are actually better than the 25% chance the odds give them.

Luckily there’s no shortage of football betting resources to help you spot those hidden value prices. At Paddy Power you can get football tips and football news every day of the year!

Negative Goal Reaction

A great football betting strategy when wagering on live games is to react to early goals. Punters can make big profit waiting for the odds of the team that concedes early to inflate, before placing a big stake on them. Of course, you’re then relying on that team to overturn a one-goal deficit. But if it’s the favourites who conceded then they’re more likely to do this.

For example, Algeria score within the opening 15 minutes in a World Cup clash with Brazil. Brazil’s original match odds of 1.50 inflate to 2.00. Now there’s more profit to chase, even if the odds are still slim for a team trailing by a goal. You back Brazil to win, and in the end they run out deserved 4-1 victors.

Negative goal reaction effectively backs the losing team to win the game at better odds than if you backed them at the start.

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