Football tips: Paddy’s team of traders pick their punts in our Sunday Cheat Sheet

Chelsea v Man Utd – Chelsea To Win

I think the price on Chelsea is a little short but if building an ACCA this weekend this is a nice leg to put in.

Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are a cut above the rest of the league, and we saw what they can do against United.

Expect nothing different on Sunday from Carrick & Co.

AC Milan v Sassuolo – Both Teams To Score

This selection has clicked in each of Sassuolo’s last seven league matches and in seven of Milan’s last eight in Serie A.

Sassuolo have been
long been the staple of any self-respecting football hipster’s diet with their swashbuckling style often leading to high scoring matches and they possess two potent attacking weapons in Italian internationals Giacomo Raspadori and Domenico Berardi.

Napoli v Lazio – Napoli To Win

Napoli lost their first Serie A game of the season last week away to Inter, but their home form has been impressive with 11 goals scored and just 2 conceded.

Lazio have only won one of their away league games this season with heavy defeats already at Verona and Bologna. They also played in Russia on Thursday whilst Napoli played their European game on Wednesday.

All the key factors are in Napoli’s favour heading into this one.

Leicester v Watford – Watford Double Chance 

Nothing we have seen from Leicester this season suggests they should be odds-on against Watford with Brendan Rodgers’ side now lying 15^th in the XG league table.

Claudio Ranieri’s men have the advantage of a week’s rest while Rodgers went almost full-strength against Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Leicester were destroyed by Chelsea last Saturday and mustered 0.00 xG in a first half capitulation. Watford of course thrashed Man Utd so could get at least a point in the Double Chance market.

RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen – Leverkusen To Win

Leverkusen are fourth in the Bundesliga, three points clear of Leipzig.

Patrick Schick has continued his good Euro’s form with eight league goals already.

Leipzig are not as strong as last season having lost Upemecano, Sabitzer, Konate, Chwan & manger Nagelsmann.

Having gone into this match last season around the same price as for this fixture, there is value to be had as the gap has definitely closed between the standard of both teams since last January’s meeting.

Real Betis v Levante – Levante To Win

Levante have not won in 22 La Liga games, sit bottom of the table and recently parted ways with much beloved manager Paco Lopez.

However, there is context to make their price away to Betis seem like worth a shot.

They are actually 11^th in the table on expected points and have just been the wrong side of key moments in games. Plus they have a lot of key players starting to return from injury too.

They are a mid-table team going to a Betis side who lost three on the bounce before the international break. They returned last week with a win at the worse rated team in La Liga (Elche) but had the distraction of the Europa League on Thursday night.

The conditions are right for Levante to finally get a win on the board at a price that is worth a shot.

Man City v West Ham – West Ham Double Chance

The Hammers are an appealing price to avoid defeat at 5/2 and at over 8/1 to win the match. The injury problems in attack are starting to mount up for City with Ferran Torres and Kevin De Bruyne both absent and Phil Foden and Jack Grealish doubtful to feature.

Despite City’s heroics against PSG in midweek, this City team can struggle to convert their dominance into goals as we saw in their defeat at the Etihad by Crystal Palace and scoreless draw against Southampton.

West Ham can also draw confidence from their 2-1 defeat in this fixture last season where they dominated on expected goals with only poor finishing letting them down.

Man City v West Ham – West Ham To Win

I’ll go a step further than Emmet! When City are on it they can steamroller any team but they’ve also looked vulnerable at times.

West Ham are only three points behind them, have beaten Liverpool in the league and knocked Pep Guardiola’s side out of the Carabao Cup on penalties.

The price to win is a touch on the big side.

Espanyol v Real Sociedad – Raul de Tomas First Goalscorer

Raul de Tomas (or R.D.T as is printed on his jersey) is always the man for the goalscorer markets. Of players who have played over 720 mins in the Top 5 European League this season, he ranks in the Top 5 in terms of the highest proportion of a team’s xG based on mins played.

Essentially, when on the pitch this season, he is getting ~46% of Espanyol’s xG. The chances are happening for him, but he is priced as if he is only getting ~25% of Espanyol’s xG. Based on what we have seen this season he should be priced at a higher proportion by the market than just ~25% of his team’s goals. And yes, he is scoring those chances to – he’s got 7 from an xG total of 6.6.

Man City v West Ham – Joao Cancelo To Have 1+ Shots On Target

Joao Cancelo is averaging the same number of shots per game as Harry Kane and has arguably been City’s best player this season along with Bernardo Silva.

He looks worth a punt to hit the target on Sunday at the prices.

Napoli v Lazio – Lazio Double Chance

Napoli’s form has started to tail off after a red hot start to the season and they have now suffered key injuries with Victor Osimhen, Lorenzo Insigne and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa all on the treatment table.

Lazio’s form has been inconsistent this year but they did outplay Atalanta in Bergamo a couple of weeks ago and are good enough to exploit a weakened Napoli.

Brentford v Everton – Brentford To Win

Both sides are in rotten form with no wins in their last 10, but it’s Everton who have a handful of starting players unavailable.

They were already struggling for goals without Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but with Richarlison, Gray, Mina, Doucoure & Davies all out for this one, it’s Brentford at home who I’m backing to get a crucial win.