Our football trader Jason Murphy joined PPTV to preview Man Utd’s Europa League semi final against the in-form Sevilla on Sunday night at 20:00. How’s this one going to go? Read on to see Jason’s considered opinion and you can watch his preview below.
Sevilla’s pedigree in this competition is well known. They’re the five-time winners and this particular Sevilla team are really good, really solid defensively and they don’t give up many chances which we saw against Wolves. They finished fourth in La Liga with the same points as Atletico Madrid and they actually drew both games against them.
They are a really, really strong, solid side. The only question mark is that hey probably don’t score enough goals. Their main man is Luuk de Jong who’s missed a lot of chances. They’re creating chances but just not taking them. The concern for your punter here is that United’s price is just too short. I’m a United fan but Sevilla are going to go off as underdogs and I’d be on them.
The odds available on Sevilla to qualify is the bet you should be having on this game. United did look tired against Copenhagen but they went to extra time because Karl-Johan Johnsson was unbelievable in the goal for Copenhagen. Unbelievable.
Untied created lots of chances but you won’t get those kinds of chances against this Sevilla team. If you imagined United were playing Atletico Madrid, would you have United as favourites? I’m not saying Sevilla are a good as Atletico Madrid, but just to give you kind of a gauge where this match price should be.
So, Sevilla going off dogs, that’s the bet. That’s the value bet in this game.
Lucas Ocampos, we tipped him during the week and we saw him pop up with the header against Wolves. He’s the one to watch, he’s on penalties, but I do think it will be a low-scoring game.
If you want to go the United route, I’d have to tip up Anthony Martial. He’s got 17 goals in the league this season without scoring any penalties. If he was on penalties for United, he would have possibly pipped Jamie Vardy to Premier League top goalscorer.
He has delivered in the No.9 role this season, I think, for United and there is still potential for improvement next season.
A bigger price one and an angle you can look at in terms of the Sevilla goal scorers. United have conceded nine goals from corner this season, Sevilla have scored six from corners. Sevilla get a rate of corners, just from the way they play their football, the cross-field passes, there’s a lot put out for corners and the two big men at the back, Diego Carlos and Jules Kounde.
Kounde will be the bigger price, they’ve both scored four in the league this season so I’m putting him up. Anytime goal scorers, I’d probably hold off because I think it will be a low-scoring game so have a look at your first goal scorers.
Jason Murphy’s tips for Sevilla v Man Utd on Sunday at 20:00
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