*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
The last of the EFL playoff semi finals take place on Sunday, sandwiching the final Premier League games of this mad campaign. First up it’s Morecambe v Tranmere at 12.30pm where the hosts hold a 2-1 lead.
Then, at 6.30pm, it’s Newport making the relatively-short trip across the Severn Bridge and into the Cotswolds to take on Forest Green Rovers with a 2-0 lead from the first leg up their sleeves. Both games are finely poised, but let’s try and make some money while we enjoy some good old-fashioned 4th-tier footy.
Tranmere will probably feel a little aggrieved to have come away from the 1st leg with a loss. In a blistering first half it was The Shrimps who opened the scoring. Rovers levelled before Liam McAlinden got the final goal of the game just before half time for Morecambe.
I’ll be honest, it was a better game than I was expecting – in the first half at least. But what about Sunday? Well, I think the value is with the away side in this one, especially if we look back at these two’s three meetings this season.
12.30pm: Morecambe v Tranmere
Sky Sports Football
Across the two league games and first semi final, the away side has won on every occasion by a single goal each time. Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times and we better bloody take note.
This is two evenly-matched teams but how many times have we seen the side holding on to slender advantage defending for dear life only to let it slip late on? This will be very tight again but, based on those undeniable trends, I’m on a Tranmere Win inside the 90. I think we’re set for extra time in this one, just don’t ask me who’s going through.
Newport’s 2-0 win over Forest Green was the first time they’ve tasted victory against their playoff rivals this season as Rovers picked up a point at home before taking all three from their trip to south Wales within the regular 46 games. Predictably, FGR had the lion’s share of the possession in the first leg but it was the streetwise and battle-hardened Exiles who came away with the win.
This is a tough one to call as it really does depend which Forest Green decide to turn up. Their form is all over the shop, but County have been good recently, winning four of their last six matches, drawing the other two.
6.30pm: Forest Green Rovers v Newport County
Sky Sports Football
I think Newport will go through but they might not win this game – they don’t have to anyway. With a lot of prices too short to consider, given Newport’s healthy advantage, we’ll have to look elsewhere for a punt and I think Over 2.5 Goals looks our best bet.
Obviously Forest Green have to go for it here and Newport will be more than happy to pick them off and make them pay if they’re not on it. While neither team is regularly crossing the 2.5 Goals threshold, FGR have no other option than to attack and we could be in for an entertaining contest with a few goals flying in.
Tips for Sunday’s League Two playoffs
These two selections in a double will give you odds of around 5/1 with Paddy Power.
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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