*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
This game doesn’t look much on paper but it’s absolutely crucial in the context of both these sides’ seasons. For Everton, who expected to contend for a top-four spot, this has to represent a defining game in their campaign because it’s the type of fixture that they’d drop points in any other year and see their hard work count for naught because they couldn’t convert.
To be in with a squeak of pipping Leicester, Chelsea or even Man United, you simply have to beat Burnley at home. There’s no ifs and buts about it. It doesn’t need to be pretty but it absolutely has to be done.
Saturday 5.30pm: Everton v Burnley
Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
For Burnley, these are the types of games they revel in. A lot is made of Burnley’s home form and it being key to their success. I understand this logic but with the Clarets, they’ve always had that one defining away result every year that makes people stop and consider them the quintessential banana skin.
Of course the Liverpool result looked it, but in retrospect, any side going to Anfield given the context would have turned them over. Everton are the type of mentally-frail opposition they prey on, and this game is going to be psychological warfare. So crack open a pack of digestives, put your feet up and let’s make a few quid off of the Toffees’ misery.
Short-price punt: Burnley and the Draw
Maybe this doesn’t seem like an obvious bet for most, but here are the cold, hard facts. Burnley have lost just one of their last seven games in the Premier League. The only sides to beat them since the start of October, bar Leeds, are all in contention for Champions League spots – Spurs, Chelsea, Man City, Man United and West Ham.
I’d go as far to say that Burnley and The Draw is a considerably more likely result than Everton winning the game. When Everton need to win games, they generally don’t. If they want to be considered a force in the race of Europe’s premier competition, they’ll need to overcome decades worth of psychological weight based on failure.
Value Punt: Half-Time: Burnley
Three of Burnley’s last six Premier League goals have come inside the opening ten minutes of games. As the switch appeared to have been flipped over the last few weeks, Sean Dyche’s emphasis on scoring early may be based on the fact he doesn’t back his side to come from behind, but whether it’s out of a lack of confidence in his team or not, it produces the same result.
If Burnley are to score, it’ll likely be early. My value punt here is Half-Time: Burnley.
Long Shot: Ben Mee to Score Anytime
I’m backing a Burnley centre half to net from a corner with Ben Mee to Score Anytime. It might seem like a default kind of bet, but there’s more logic to it than that.
Yes, Ben Mee scoring against Villa obviously helps the confidence in pushing this, but also because Everton don’t go centre half against centre half like most teams. They frequently get mismatched in the box against opposition powerhouses. Every bit of intel, as they say.
Tips for Burnley v Everton
Burnley and The Draw
Half Time: Burnley
Ben Mee to Score Anytime
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Punter nets over £78,000 with 11 draws in an acca
- United sign Gok Wan to upstage Pep’s touchline fashion crimes
- Phil Thompson: Klopp is still the man for Liverpool – but trouble has been brewing for months
- Lyle Lanley wows Barcelona members with Monorail plan
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
