*All odds in copy correct at time of publication and they’re always bang on with our clever betting banners.
The Premier League throws up numerous weird and wonderful managerial match-ups these days, but there’s something intrinsically funny about the culture clash of Marcelo Bielsa taking on David Moyes. The Argentine bulldog with the blue bucket taking on one of the cornerstones of the British Managers’ Club feels like trying to mix oil and water.
Their teams are just as hard to read too. Leeds have only won five points at home so far this season, when the underlying statistics imply they have deserved eight. What’s more, only one of the five games – the 4-1 defeat to Leicester – has had a result matching what should’ve happened on the balance of chances.
Friday 8pm: Leeds v West Ham
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West Ham are in a similar boat, having earned seven points on the road when the numbers claim they could’ve easily had nine. It’s not as if there’s any recent history between the teams to guide our predictions either.
It’s almost nine years since they last met, and that took place in the Championship. It was a 1-1 draw in Yorkshire, in case you’re interested in irrelevant trivia. You’ve no business reading this if you’re not, in fairness.
It’s 20 years since West Ham last won a match with Leeds, but there have only been nine meetings in the intervening two decades. However, while form that mouldy can’t guide us, it does seem reasonable to think that the home side will extend their unbeaten run in this fixture.
MORE TIPS: Phil Thompson’s betting preview for tonight’s big game
Leeds To Win
The Whites might be winless in their last four league matches at Elland Road, but it has been finishing which has held them back, not a lack of opportunities in front of goal. Leeds have scored twice from chances worth approximately seven expected goals across those games, and deserved to beat both Manchester City and Arsenal based on the stats.
And while West Ham are having a decent season in 2020/21, they have only won six away matches since the start of last season.
Two of their four last term were against sides who were relegated, and one of their victories in this campaign was against a Sheffield United team who look doomed to the Championship already.
The Bielsa boys are going to secure themselves a handsome home victory before too much longer and this could easily be it. We’re on the Leeds Win as the first leg of our Same Game Multi on Friday night.
Both Teams To Score
While the Hammers’ win at Bramall Lane was a low scoring affair, their other four away matches in the Premier League have all featured at least three goals (and there were three in the last eight minutes of their bonkers draw at Tottenham). And, though they’ve kept two clean sheets on the road, they’ve given up at least one clear-cut chance (and an average of two) in every away game this season.
Leeds’ only opposition shut out at Elland Road came against a 10 men Arsenal side who don’t create anything when they have 11 on the pitch, so West Ham are definitely capable of finding the net and Both Teams To Score landing. They are also strong in an area where the home side are weak: set-pieces.
Over 2.5 Goals
Only Leicester have conceded more set play goals than Leeds, and only four sides have scored more than the Hammers in 2020/21. Put all of this together and we should have an entertaining match on our hands with Over 2.5 Goals. It should beat watching Midsomer Murders repeats on ITV on Friday night anyway.
Patrick Bamford to score first
There are eight teams in the Premier League – including Manchester City and Arsenal – who have scored fewer away goals than Patrick Bamford has this season. Yet the 27-year-old has only netted once at Elland Road, and that was against Fulham in Leeds’ first home match of the campaign.
Since finding the net in that game, ‘Bam Bam’ has played for 383 minutes on home turf, taken 16 shots with an expected goal value of over three and drawn a blank. In the 0-0 draw against Arsenal last time out he had more xG than the whole Gunners’ side, though that’s not saying much these days.
And he leads the Premier League for non-penalty expected goals in 2020/21, so his tally of eight goals in the real world is no fluke. Back Bamford to Score First and hammer the Irons in this one.
*All odds in copy correct at time of publication and they’re always bang on with our clever betting banners.
Leeds v West Ham Same Game Multi
Leeds To Win
Both Teams To Score
Over 2.5 Goals
Patrick Bamford To Score First
These four selections in a Same Game Multi will give you odds of around 16/1 with Paddy Power.
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SAME GAME MULTI ACCA INSURANCE
If one leg of your 4+ fold Same Game Multi lets you down, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 SGM Acca Insurance per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.
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- Goals at a premium in this 28/1 Man Utd v Man City Same Game Multi
- 9/1 Richarlison the creator in Everton and Chelsea goal-fest
- Our tasty 10/1 Same Game Multi for Saturday night’s Madrid derby
Top tips for Sunday
- Kane to hit the mark in our 3 best Crystal Palace v Tottenham bets
- Awesome Aubameyang can fire Arsenal to win over Burnley
- Our trader’s best bet for Leicester v Brighton
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