* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
It’s going to be some clash in the capital!
The 167th league meeting between Real Madrid and city rivals Atletico takes place on Saturday night. Atletico are still undefeated in La Liga this season and currently sit at the top of the league on 26 points from their 10 matches played so far.
Both teams qualified for the Last 16 of the Champions League midweek and while Atletico can extend their lead at the top with a win here, Real will be doing all they can to put a halt to that. There’s plenty of stats and trends to pour over with this one, but we’ve found a Same Game Multi for what should be a fascinating Madrid derby.
Saturday 8pm: Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Usually, you’d expect the odds on Both Teams to Score to be a bit tighter – especially with these two in good goal-scoring form. Real have 17 over their 11 league matches, while Atletico have netted 21 over their 10. Both share the stat of having scored eight goals over their five most recent home and away matches in the league.
Why are the odds so high then? Well, previous head-to-head La Liga matches have been a bit dour at the Bernabeu. All five recent La Liga meetings there have seen Under 2.5 goals and only two saw BTTS landing.
This match won’t be played at the Bernabeu though. All home Madrid matches are being played at the Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium at their training base this season and, while they’ve had pretty decent results, their defensive facilities have been exposed on many occasions. Of their last eight home matches they’ve kept just two clean sheets and Atletico’s away record in La Liga has seen them score at least one in 11 out of 12. There’s some decent value here, grab it before the price shortens.
While the market is favouring the home side here, they’ve only actually beaten Atletico in one out of their last five visits. Of course, as already mentioned, this isn’t being played at their usual home ground but Atletico, as league leaders, have little to fear here and are more than capable of taking the three points.
It’s going to be a tight one though, and one stat has really shone through for us. Former Barcelona and Liverpool forward Luiz Suarez has played against Real Madrid on 16 occasions over his career so far and has netted a very respectable 11 goals over those matches – winning seven, drawing four and losing five.
He’s also picked up eight yellow cards, so a possible booking might be on the cards too.
Joao Felix has been scoring more often of late than Suarez. But, knowing that he has a thing for Real, we’re going with him to Score Anytime here.
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Three out of five previous away league matches for Diego Simeone’s side have been level at half-time. That stat has only occurred in one out of five previous home Real matches though. Amazingly enough, it has been level in all five of their previous La Liga meetings where Real were the home side.
Atletico, like no other team in European football, know how to frustrate teams, close ranks and keep opponents quiet. The odds here are pretty decent for the score to be level at the break considering those stats.
Going over those previous La Liga meetings with Atletico as the away side, it’s hard to not give them the nod here. It’s the same old story season after season, Zinedine Zidane’s outfit have the stars, the goals and the glory, but dogged Atletico just cannot be held down by them at home. Also, we need to consider the fact that had we made this bet in all of Atletico’s 12 most recent away La Liga matches, it would have landed in all over them.
Nobody can deny Real are a strong side at home, however, they’ve lost two of their last five and have only kept one clean sheet at home in the league over their last five and if Atletico get the first goal, it’s going to be a long, frustrating night for the home side. Atletico have the guile and momentum here to take at least a point, they could very well take all three.
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