The matches are still coming thick and fast and to be honest we’re loving this summer of football. Crowds at matches would be nicer but fingers crossed that will be sooner rather than later.
Anyway, for Thursday’s action we’re looking at some top-of-the-table clashes in Italy and Spain and the Bundesliga relegation/promotion playoff.
MORE TIPS:
- Expect goals galore as Man City host new champions Liverpool
- Our 3 best bets as Tottenham attempt to blunt the Blades in Thursday’s 6pm kick-off
18.30: Atalanta vs Napoli – BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
With nine points between Roma in fifth and Atalanta in fourth the home side look like a sure thing for a return to Champions League football next season. A win would lessen the gap between themselves and Inter in third to just a point. Napoli, in sixth, are looking to get ahead of Roma so they won’t be forced to qualify for next season’s Europa League.
Both sides are unbeaten since the return to Serie A action. Atalanta are scoring 2.86 and conceding 1.57 per home matches, Napoli are averaging 1.86 and conceding 1.29. 93% of Atalanta home matches have seen Over 2.5 goals, it has occurred in 50% of away Napoli matches. We could well be in for a humdinger of a match here so we’re backing Both Teams to Score at Over 2.5 Goals.
19.30: Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim – Heidenheim Double Chance
Werder Bremen have home advantage for the first leg of this Bundesliga playoff. Werder have been terrible all season but they did beat Koln 6-1 last week to ensure they weren’t automatically relegated. Koln had put their beach towels out a week prior to that match though and didn’t put up anything even close to a fight. Heidenheim’s form coming into this match isn’t the best, of their last six they’ve won three, drawn one and lost two.
Werder’s home record is a bit of a joke, they won two matches all season, drawing three and losing 12, Heidenheim aren’t great on the road though, their Bundesliga II away record reads as four wins, six draws and seven losses. The market has been siding with Werder here, but that home record is just so bad. Indeed, with their record for home losses and Heidenheim’s superior away record we’re going to take a nibble on the Double Chance (win or draw) on Heidenheim.
21.00: Real Madrid vs Getafe – Both Teams to Score
The home side are massive favourites here at 3/10. Getafe have won once away to Real since 2004, a run of 14 matches where they’ve lost 12 times. Getafe are no pushovers this season though, they’ve won six, drawn four and lost five on their La Liga travels, Real have won 12 and drawn four of their home league matches.
Real’s Clean Sheet record is good at home, they’re conceding just 0.63 goals per home match on average. Over their 10 most previous home matches they’ve kept five Clean Sheets and since La Liga returned to action they’ve kept three from a possible five.
Getafe though have scored an away goal in eight out of 10 previous matches on the road in all competitions and have scored in four out of five previous visits against Real.
Again, it’s a little against the crowd but we have value on our side here with Getafe’s away scoring record, so we’re backing Both Teams to Score.
All three of these picks into a Treble will give you odds of over 7/1 with Paddy Power.
Tips for Thursday’s European football
18.30 Atalanta vs Napoli: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
19.30 Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim: Heidenheim Double Chance
21.00 Real Madrid vs Getafe: Both Teams to Score
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