New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Handicap: Atlanta (-1.5)
Total Runs: Under 9.5
Orlando Arcia to Record a Hit
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
Monday Night, 12:20AM, Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: TNT Sports 2
Baseball is the sport where analytics is king.
So you’d think it’s really only the management that can go wrong, alongside a few outliers.
We’ve all seen Moneyball, right? These executives have it figured out within an inch of its life. But the numbers don’t always make sense.
The New York Mets travel to Atlanta on Monday night as a gorgeous contrast in explaining how one team, despite spending a league-topping amount in free agency to load your roster with guys putting up career numbers, it can all go south.
And speaking of south, the Braves never go too far with their purse strings, but because of their engrained culture, it’s very clear that they’re always going to be contending.
This isn’t exactly a field trip for the Mets front office, but seeing a stadium full of anticipation might make for a welcome break from Citifield. Alongside the ability to sample actual good food and take a break from those watery hot dogs they seem to keep serving in Queens.
Anyway, batter up!
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – APRIL 07: Orlando Arcia #11 of the Atlanta Braves hits a single in the second inning against the at Truist Park on April 07, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Handicap: Atlanta (-1.5)
I will only ever back a handicap in baseball if I have three things.
The first is a pitcher who can go seven innings and does so relatively often. Box checked for Charlie Morton who’s won multiple World Series and has just bounced from a winning locker room to another over the last number of years in his career.
The second is a pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts, rather than groundouts. The Mets don’t do a lot but they do have speed on the basepads. Check.
And finally, I need an opposing pitcher who doesn’t have a dominant fastball. Julio Teheran? Check. More on him later.
This will be a rout.
Alternate Runs Total: Under 9.5
It would be very hard to make a case of the Mets to put up numbers against Charlie Morton, primarily because this is the first top-end defense they’re playing against all year.
He goes long enough that he should paper over some of the more glaring bullpen holes in Atlanta.
So if the Mets can’t fire on runs through poor pitching in the sixth and seventh, it feels like their big stars will get frustrated again – like they always seem to.
And that really, really does not go down well with a fanbase in a city where they’re meant to shine brightest.
Well, unless you factor in the NFL of course. Or basketball. Or…
Orlando Arcia to Record a Hit
Having recorded hits in four of his last five games, it’s worth noting that Arcia has done so against a wide variety of starting pitchers, and does specialise in making contact with the offspeed stuff.
Julio Teheran throws a fastball on less than 15% of his pitches – and this is music to Arcia’s ears.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Bet Builder
Handicap: Atlanta (-1.5)
Total Runs: Under 9.5
Orlando Arcia to Record a Hit
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 5/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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