Tennis tips: Paddy trader’s 2 Aussie Open semi-final picks for Stefanos Tsitsipas v Daniil Medvedev

Our ace tennis trader Liam O'Keeffe runs the rule over the men's semis Down Under.


* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

8:30AM: Stefanos Tsitsipas to win

This is an intriguing matchup between the fourth and fifth seed and ultimately the game’s future here. With injury doubts still swirling around Novak Djokovic’s hopes, both of these guys will be eyeing up this opportunity as the moment to pounce and join Dominic Thiem in loosening the big three’s hold on the game and every slam it has to offer.

It can’t really be disputed that Daniil Medvedev is a little further down the line in terms of reaching such heights, especially considering he reached a slam final in the US in 2019 and had Rafael Nadal on the rack before ultimately floundering. While Medvedev was impressive in that final, coming back from two sets down to take it to a fifth he found that Nadal doesn’t often blow a two-set advantage.

The Spaniard has had such an advantage 225 times in his prestigious career and only twice has he been overturned, the latter of which was just done by Tsitsipas in the quarters. I think the Greek is being severely underestimated for what he has just done in taking three straight sets from the relentless Rafa. Granted, Nadal might have dropped his levels, possibly, but nonetheless, Tsitsipas was highly impressive going for everything and not often missing.

His aggression and execution was evident in his timely break to love in the penultimate game of the match against Rafa. It’s now a case in back-to-back slams that Tsitsipas has reached the semi-final so he’s trending the right way. He took Djokovic all the way to the fifth at Roland Garros after being two sets down again.

While he has admitted nerves have been a problem for him early in matches which can maybe somewhat excuse his slow starts, I think the 22-year-old will come on from these recent experiences in slams and won’t fear Medvedev much at all. Medvedev has a massive 5-1 head to head record but only once has he not let Tsitsipas win a set.

More crucially yet, Tsitsipas took the most recent matchup in straight sets which happened to be at the World Tour Finals. As impressive as Medvedev has been thus far, I just think Tsitipas is being underestimated as his adversary here.

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Alternative Total Sets Over 4.5

With there being a bit of value in the Tsitsipas match odds price, I also think there is a bit of value in the match going the distance. I don’t expect Tsitsipas to win easy if he does, but also if he can’t quite topple Medvedev I do expect him to push him all the way.

They both have had a propensity for long matches. Between the two of them they’ve had three five-setters in this tournament which works out as a third of their matches with Tsitsipas getting a walkover in the last 16. Outside the Nadal match, these matches were against far lesser competition. One would expect this match to play out in a similarly tight fashion with these two being more closely matched. It shouldn’t be too straightforward for whoever wins.

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Daniil Medvedev tips:

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win
Over 4.5 Sets


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