In your eyes, I see the light, leading me home again. It’s heaven in your arms my love, my heart is in your hands.
– Niamh Kavanagh 1993 Eurovision winner.
Eurovision 2024 Betting Tips
Antepost Bet: Ukraine (each-way)
Bambie Thug, our heart is in your hands. For the first time since 2011 Ireland has a competitive entry. It’s not beyond the bounds that this could be our best finish in a quarter of a century. Ireland’s entry this year is edgy, it’s catchy, it’s memorable, it’s melodic.
It could do really well and it’s a major sign of progress compared to recent years. But, and it’s a big but, semi-final one in an absolute horror show of a semi-final. One of the strongest ever. Ireland are stranded in the first half to boot. We can’t trust RTÉ to stage well either so any result would not be a surprise. Genuinely, a Top 5 finish is not out of the question.
As a fan I just want us to qualify and that is certainly no foregone conclusion. You can have a patriotic punt at 66/1 with 4 places available but at this stage I will wait until we see what the staging is looking like before I get my hopes up.
The contest overall has a similar feel. Uncertainty and depth. Lots of strong entries with huge variations in how they could perform. What a terrific prospect for punting. For the past two years we have been served up predictable contests with the winner clear and gone half way down the back straight.
2024 promises to be very different and a wide open betting heat. Ostensibly there are ten entries with a chance of victory.
Croatia are the current favourites at 5/2 and this strikes me as a truly diabolical price. Käärijä may have finished 2nd for Finland last year but he was a resounding televote winner and his big green shadow looms large over this year’s competition.
Croatia, Finland, Netherlands, and Estonia all send quirky male acts in the Käärijä big entertainment mold this year. None are as good and Croatia’s entry very much screams copy-cat act to me. While the Käärijä effect is good for audience entertainment purposes, I can’t help but feel some of these acts will cannibalise each other in attracting televotes (the contest grand final is 50-50 jury and televote).
The only way to win Eurovision in the modern era is to have a song that can cross the divide of both jury and televote. All the aforementioned songs are going to struggle to obtain the Top 3 jury finish needed to contend for overall victory. What is needed is a song performed with authenticity; vocally secure, and with enough of a visual entertainment quality to garner a large televote.
The countries that can achieve this are Ukraine, Italy, Switzerland and Belgium. If you are so inclined dutching these four acts pays 10-11 with Paddy Power and that strikes me as a fantastic bet. If that’s your type of bet – go for it.
Of the quartet the one I am most keen to back right now is Ukraine at 5-1. Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil come to the contest with a beautiful, melodic and well-constructed song that will have broad appeal East and West. This has nothing to do with solidarity voting because of the war. In fact, I would be a little concerned some voters may feel Ukraine have had their twist.
That aside this song deserves to contend for top honours on quality alone. It has huge jury and televote appeal. Both artists are superb performers, and you will rarely see a rap performed with so much flow and melody as Alyona Alyona achieves. The song has that goosebump-rousing moment feel that a Eurovision winner should have.
The beauty of Eurovision punting is the 4 places available for each way purposes. While there are theoretically 36 runners, very few of these have any hope of threatening the places. I’ll be amazed if Ukraine are not in or around the Top 4 so I am very happy to back them each-way.
Of the others, Belgium interest me the most and I was very tempted to put them up at this stage. Mustii’s song is extremely radio-friendly and he’s a fantastic performer. Atmospheric and anthemic, it is definitely one to watch. Ukraine’s consistent ability to stage songs well just sways me in their direction at this stage.
Normally at this time of year I like to put up an outsider that could emerge from the pack. However the one I like at this stage is such an outrageous rag I can’t put it up as a bet in the outright market. Moldova are 250/1 with Paddy Power, but are trading at the maximum 1000 on the exchanges. I think they have an artistic contemporary package that could surprise a few but best to wait until a few more markets form before making a play.
Eurovision Antepost Bet:
Ukraine (each-way)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- When is Eurovision 2024? Dates and odds for this year’s song contest
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
