UK General Election Predictions: Outright shouts including 4/1 punt

UK General Election Predictions

Conservative Party Vote Percentage – 20.00-21.99%
Conservative Party Seats – 50-99
Labour Party Seats – 450-499
Liberal Democrats U/O 40.5 Seats – 41 Seats or More
Reform UK Vote Percentage – 16.00-17.99%
Reform UK Party Seats – 1-2

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

They say a week is a long time in politics, but the key threads of the 2024 UK General Election are years in the making.

Whether it’s David Cameron’s decision to call the Brexit referendum, the numerous scandals under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss’ disastrous mini budget or Rishi Sunak’s general ineptitude, the Tories look set to be booted from power by the people of Britain.

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Labour are heading for a massive majority – almost by default – and Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister of the UK, but there are still issues to be settled, seats to change hands and incredible scenes of big hitters finding out they have lost at rundown leisure centres to be witnessed.

I’ve looked into my crystal ball and made a number of predictions for the vote on Thursday, July 4, otherwise, UK General Election odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app.

Rishi Sunak

Conservative Party Vote Percentage – 20.00-21.99%

The polls have the Conservatives between 15 and 25 per cent – the lower figure likely failing to take into account that if there ever was a time for Tory voters to go shy it’s probably now and the higher figure just seems, well, too high.

Crucially, the polls have hardly moved during the election period, save for Reform UK’s tick upwards and Lib Dems nudging up a couple of percentage points, which leads me to think the Tories will probably land somewhere in the 20 and 22 percentage range.

Conservative Party Seats – 50-99

The Tories are long-standing defenders of First Past The Post so it will be hugely ironic if the system leads to their wipeout.

Their biggest worry has to be the fact they’re facing a pincer movement across England from Labour in the north, the Lib Dems in their traditional southern heartlands and Reform reducing their vote share from all angles.

Some MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) models have Rishi Sunak’s party winning as many as 150 seats, which would still represent a historic low for the Conservatives, but that just seems wildly optimistic when considering formerly safe seats with monstrous majorities are at risk.

They’ve run an ultra-defensive campaign and it looks like avoiding an extinction-level event and remaining the second-largest party in parliament would probably be considered a successful outcome at this stage of proceedings.

Labour Party Seats – 450-499

It is worth remembering that Labour need to achieve their biggest swing since the Second World War to secure a majority of one, but anything other than a massive victory seems unthinkable.

To cap off a strange political period and bizarre election campaign, Keir Starmer is probably going to sweep to power with one of the biggest majorities in history, despite his party and personal brand not exactly being overwhelmingly popular.

Their total number of seats will likely be in the 450 region and a fair number will probably be won by wafer-thin margins meaning it won’t be the romp that the bare figures would suggest.

Liberal Democrats U/O 40.5 Seats – 41 Seats or More

Thank God for Ed Davey. If it wasn’t for his stunts and the amount of meme material he has provided, this would have been the most mind-numbing election campaign in history.

At the very least, the Liberal Democrats will return to being the third-largest party in the House of Commons, while overtaking the Tories in terms of seats cannot be ruled out.

They appear to have learned lessons from Jo Swinson’s disastrous 2019 campaign by focusing their resources on their most-winnable seats and that ruthless strategy should pay dividends.

Reform UK Vote Percentage – 16.00-17.99%

Nigel Farage has captured media attention and Reform UK are proving popular on social media, although their ground game is going to limit their overall impact.

While they have enjoyed a surge in the polls over the course of the campaign, their numbers have plateaued in the last week. Why? I think it extends to the fact that Farage has a significant following but that number is heavily outweighed by voters who would never countenance voting for him.

He has effectively captured his base but major gains beyond that look limited – especially when you consider that parties of the centre and left generally earn the majority of votes in UK elections.

Reform UK Party Seats – 1-2

Clacton. Boston and Skegness. Expect Farage to bang the drum for electoral reform. A push for Proportional Representation will dominate UK politics in the coming years.