The San Francisco 49ers are looking to stay undefeated and will host the always entertaining Cleveland Browns. What does this matchup have in store for us in a single-game format fantasy format?
PaddyPower.com currently have the 49ers as -5.0 home favourites, presenting us with what should be a close and interesting game, as the over/under is set at 47.5.
MVP Considerations
Odell Beckham (£13,500) – Last week Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards, but Beckham ended with only 20 of those yards. That isn’t the level of production we expect to see from what should be their top receiver, but hopefully, this matchup will turn things around. The 49ers are giving up 30.4 points per game to wide receivers, which is 20th in the league this season. Beckham has always been known for his ability to break big plays and if the 49ers secondary is already struggling against wide receivers, this is the time to target them, as the Browns are set to be trailing in this game.
Beckham comes in as our fourth-highest projected player tonight with 14.4 points, along with the highest projected receptions and targets. He makes a clear choice for the MVP spot tonight given how favourable his matchup is.
George Kittle (£11,000) – Kittle has been consistent to start the season, but it hasn’t been great. He has a low of 6.9 points, a high of 9.4 points, and has yet to find the end zone. Not the best start to the season for a player who broke tight end records last year, but this is a spot to roster him with confidence. To start, he has played on 86.3% of the team’s offensive snaps, which is the highest among any position player on the 49ers. Next, Kittle comes in just behind Beckham with the second-highest projected targets, receptions, and even touchdowns.
The Browns are allowing the 11th most points per game to tight ends this season at 10.5. While that might not be a ton of points, Kittle is due for a bit of positive touchdown regression given the fact he leads the team in snaps, targets, receptions, and yards. He just needs to find the end zone tonight.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – SEPTEMBER 29: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns celebrates as Nick Chubb #24 (not pictured) rushes for a fourth quarter touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 29, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Baker Mayfield (£14,500) – While Nick Chubb went crazy last week with three touchdowns for the Browns, that doesn’t appear to be in the cards this week. The 49ers are allowing only 11.0 points per game to running backs this season, which is the lowest in the league. If they can’t run the ball, then the offence will fall to Mayfield and the passing game. This is a clear path to fantasy production for Mayfield, who now has over 300 passing yards in two of his last three games, but has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a single game this season.
A 47.5 over./under is encouraging tonight, especially since 57% of the bets are on the over, meaning the public is expecting plenty of scoring, per oddsFire. Extra opportunities to pass the ball give Mayfield more opportunities to score fantasy points and as such, is our third-highest projected player at 17.4 points tonight.
Value Plays
Deebo Samuel (£8,000) – The Browns are allowing 25.4 points per game to wide receivers this season and with the 49ers coming in with 26.25 implied team total, their offence is one to target tonight. Samuel has played on the second-highest per cent of snaps for the 49ers and comes in at a very modest $8K price tag tonight. Samuel is interesting to look at tonight since he comes in second on the team in air yards and second in market share of air yards.
Samuel is averaging only 4.66 targets per game, so while his overall usage in the offence is modest, the big-play potential is there for him. One or two long throws, hopefully leading to a touchdown, are in play versus the Browns.
SANTA CLARA, CA – OCTOBER 22: A general view of the NFL game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium on October 22, 2015 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Antonio Callaway (£7,500) – This is a situation which needs a bit of monitoring before kick-off, as Callaway is set to make his season debut after being suspended for the first four games. The Browns also have Rashard Higgins, who could be active for this game after missing a few due to a knee injury. If we look back to last season, we can see that Callaway had a 13.9 aDOT (Average Depth of Target) for the Browns, which was the second-highest on the Browns for qualified receivers.
There is very clear big-play potential for Callaway and now gets to start his season against the 49ers, who are allowing 30.4 FanDuel points per game to wider receivers this season.
Dante Pettis (£6,000) – Pettis is a bit cheaper compared to these other value plays and he comes with a bit more risk. There was plenty of talk surrounding Pettis in the preseason, what his role on the team would be, and eventually, a bit of injury concern. This could be considered a bit of a dart throw, but between Samuel, Marquise Goodwin, and even Richie James, we could be seeing Pettis as the lowest owned.
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