Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson (£8,000)
Week 5 brings a get right spot for Watson and the Houston Texans. They have an implied team total of 27 and face an Atlanta Falcons defence that over the last two weeks has given up a combined 537 passing yards and five touchdowns to Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota. Atlanta ranks 27th in adjusted defensive passing NEP per play. Watson has been sacked 18 times in four games, so the lack of pass rush generated by Atlanta (4 sacks) will be a welcomed sight. Watson finds himself in the projections as the highest-scoring QB.
Carson Wentz (£7,800)
Dating back to last season, over his last six starts Wentz has averaged 20.9 Fantasy points. He has accounted for two or more touchdowns in each of the first four games. He ranks tenth in total NEP amongst all starting quarterbacks. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles are 13.5 point home favourites with a big implied team total of 29 against the New York Jets. New York have given up an average of 18 Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this year. Wentz projects to be our second highest projected quarterback of Week 5.
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Andy Dalton (£7,500)
Dalton had a night to forget in primetime as per usual, but now gets a bounce-back spot as the Cincinnati Bengals are a 4.5 point home favourite with an implied team total of 26.5 against the Arizona Cardinals. Prior to last week, Dalton had two or more touchdowns in each of the first three games. Arizona has been a sieve to opposing offences allowing 28.8 points per game. The Cards rank 20th in adjusted defensive passing NEP per play, and rank as our number 24 overall defence. We project Dalton to rebound in Week 5, as he comes in as a top seven value at the position.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (£8,800)
While the fantasy output was not tremendous last week, the Dallas Cowboys have fully committed back to Zeke as he played on 97% of the offensive snaps and handled 100% of the running back touches in Week 4. He is currently tied with Christian McCaffrey amongst all running backs in red zone carries. Dallas is a 3.5 point favourite this week and should ride Zeke against the generous Green Bay Packers run defence. From Week 2 on, Green Bay has given up 26.6 FD points to Dalvin Cook, 27 to Phillip Lindsay, and 31 to Jordan Howard. The Packers currently rank dead last in adjusted defensive rushing NEP per play. Zeke comes in as a top-four running back play in our projections.
Dalvin Cook (£8,200)
86 total touches for Cook through four weeks, averaging 21.5 per week, and he found the endzone in every game. He currently sits atop of our total NEP statistic amongst all running backs. This week, the Minnesota Vikings are 4.5 point road favourites against the New York Giants, who own a middle of the pack rush defence, ranking 17th in adjusted defensive rushing NEP per play. Our projections like Cook to continue his strong start, ranking him within the top three scoring running backs.
David Johnson (£6,900)
Kliff Kingsbury is essentially using Johnson as a short area receiver, he has now seen seven or more targets in three of the first four games, and he has caught at least six balls in those three games. With Christian Kirk banged up, Johnson’s receiving volume should remain steady, add that with his rushing attempts he seems to be underpriced yet again. His match-up against the Cincinnati Bengals is ideal as they rank 28th in adjusted defensive NEP per play. Johnson is far and away the top running back value in our projections this week.
David Montgomery (£5,700)
The volume dramatically increased with the loss of Mitchell Trubisky for Montgomery. He handled 24 touches, which accounted for greater than 70% of the Chicago Bears backfield touches. Over the last three games, Montgomery has averaged 19.7 touches. Now another week without the starting quarterback, the Bears could look to get Montgomery going as a 4.5-point favourite against the Oakland Raiders. Montgomery is tied for third among all running backs with four rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. There isn’t much salary relief at this position this week, but Montgomery provides some as he comes in as a top seven value in our projections.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins (£8,500)
This guy can only be held down for so long, and after three straight shadow match-ups against top tier cornerbacks: Jalen Ramsey, Casey Hayward and James Bradberry, Hopkins looks to right the ship against a leaky Atlanta Falcons secondary. Over the last two weeks, they gave up a combined 8/185/3 to A.J. Brown & Corey Davis and 10/118/2 to T.Y. Hilton & Zach Pascal, and the defence ranks as the 27th pass defence using metrics. Hopkins still ranks ninth in Air Yards and owns a 28% target share. Our projections have him as the top-scoring wide out in Week 5.
Keenan Allen (£7,500)
Allen let owners down last week but was not needed much against the Miami Dolphins. He still owns a 32.9% team target share as well as owns 39% of the team’s total air yards. This week, the Los Angeles Chargers are implied to score 25.25 points against a very underwhelming Denver Broncos defence, who ranks 26th in adjusted defensive passing NEP per play. We project Allen to bounce back as he comes in as our second-highest projected wide receiver.
Tyler Boyd (£6,700)
Seemingly the only healthy Bengals receiver left, Boyd looks poised to take advantage the Cardinals defence. He has seen a 23.5% team target share, and that could increase if John Ross misses this week. The Cardinals can’t seem to stop the middle of the field, allowing the opposing teams number one tight end and the primary slot receiver to combine for 31.4 Fantasy Points per Game. Our projections have Boyd top five wide receiver value this week.
Emmanuel Sanders (£5,600)
32 years old and coming off an Achilles injury, Sanders doesn’t look slowed down at all. He has seen a 23% team target share and leads the NFL in red-zone targets with eight. This week, the match-up is great against the Chargers. With some major injuries, the Chargers find themselves haemorrhaging fantasy points to wide receivers, coming in ranked 30th in adjusted defensive passing NEP per play. While the Broncos team total is low, so is Sanders price in a plus match-up making him a top-six receiver value in our projections this week.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (£6,600)
The Eagles own the second-highest implied team total on the Fantasy main slate with 29. Wentz has been looking Ertz’s way quite a bit lately, as he owns a 29.2% target share over the last three games. He has yet to find the end zone this season, although being tied for 3rd in red-zone targets. He comes in as our highest projected scoring tight end this week.
Tyler Eifert (£4,600)
Through four games, the Cardinals have given up the most receptions (32), receiving yards (431), receiving touchdowns (6) and Fantasy points per game (23.8) to opposing tight ends. While Eifert hasn’t seen a ton of volume, he does lead the Bengals in red-zone targets. As a super cheap salary relief option at one of the most violate positions, he makes sense as a dart throw as our projections like him as a top 11 value.
Defence
New England D/ST (£5,500)
The combination of this incredible defence and the schedule they face is pure gold. They have now scored above 10 Fantasy points in each of the first four games, including two games with 25 or more. Now they get another juicy spot on the road as more than two touchdown favourites against the train wreck that is the Washington Redskins. If you have the money fire these guys up with confidence, they are our top-scoring DST.
Cincinnati D/ST (£3,900)
Any defence against Kyler Murray and the atrocious Arizona offensive line is in play, especially at a cheap price. Murray has been sacked 20 times already this season and has four turnovers. Football Outsiders has the Cardinals offensive line ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate. The Bengals were able to take advantage of one bad OL already this season in Week 1 with four sacks, now have a solid chance to get after it again this week. Our projections have them as the top DST value this week.
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